Bayh Gones

The Democrats may be setting a record for longest unbroken string of bad news. Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana has decided not to run for re-election. This was a seat the Democrats figured they couldn't lose, and now they are very likely to lose it.

Bayh departed in a huff, blaming excessive partisan on both sides. But actions speak louder than words, and his action looks likely to improve the fortunes of Republicans while wounding his own party deeply. Bayh waited until four days before the filing date for the Democratic primary to announce his decision. Indiana Democrats have to scramble now to field a candidate.

As things stand now, Republicans will probably hold all of their vulnerable seats. They seem like to take at least seven Democratic seats, including defeating Harry Reid. That would bring the Senate balance 52/48 Democrat.

A Republican take-over is not out of the cards, but it would require some rock solid Democratic seats to crumble. I suspect the Republicans are better off not taken control. But as Massachusetts proved, this year anything can happen.

Comments

[John]

I know all you Republicans are giddy about this, but don't forget that there are more Senate Republicans retiring than Senate Democrats.

[KB]

Thanks, John. What matters, however, is the expectations in the face of which the retirements are occurring. Retiring Republicans are confident that their party will hold onto their seats. Retiring Democrats, many of them at least, are retiring because it is preferable to running and losing. To be sure, things may change. But if the election were held right now the Republicans would probably pick up eight seats. They might well win the Senate back.