Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota is retiring at the end of this term. From an ABC News, The Note:
Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-ND, will have served 18 years in the Senate and 12 in the House of Representatives when he steps down at the end of his current term.
This would have been a tough seat for Democrats to defend even with Dorgan on the ballot and is perhaps a boon to Republicans looking to eat into Democrats' majorities in 2010.
I hadn't guessed that Dorgan might be in trouble. He may be retiring for personal reasons, as he says. But that's what everyone says, and right now a lot of Democrats are finding personal reasons not to run. Here is what the Bismarck Tribune has to say:
Dorgan's decision stunned members of his party, who control the Senate but are facing spirited challenges from Republicans in several states. Democrats were confident heading into the new year that Dorgan would run for re-election even as rumors intensified that Republican Gov. John Hoeven would challenge him in November.
Early polling showed Dorgan trailing Hoeven in a hypothetical contest, and Democrats expected a competitive race if the matchup materialized.
This is the same pattern evident in South Dakota, where Herseth-Sandlin is polling below 50%. Dorgan was apparently running behind Gov. Hoeven, who hadn't even announced. It looks like Dorgan decided to quit before they fired him.
The ABC Note article has this title: "Democrats Dropping like Flies." It mentions other cases of the same in Colorado and Michigan. The Michigan case is the most interesting of the lot. Lieutenant Governor John Cherry, the most popular Democrat in the race for the State House, is pulling out of the race. He is running well behind the likely Republican nominee.
The Baron of election commentary, Michael Barone, notes the significance of this on his blog:
By all the standard rules, Michigan should be a heavily Democratic state. It voted 57%-41% for Barack Obama in 2008 (the McCain campaign ostentatiously and over the public objections of Sarah Palin took it off the target list in late September) and 56%-42% for Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm and 57%-41% for Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow in 2006. It was a target state in 2000 and 2004, but was carried 51%-46% by Al Gore and 51%-48% by John Kerry.
The standard rule is that voters move toward Democrats in time of recession, but that doesn't seem to be happening in the state with the nation's highest unemployment (14.7% in November). Granholm has a dismal job rating, and now Cherry is dropping out of the race to succeed her. Reportedly he has had trouble raising money, which is pretty astonishing considering that he has had a long career in Michigan politics and has been a stalwart supporter of labor unions.
This suggests a collapse in the Democratic base states. Even if the economy recovers more than expected, and the Democrat's standing with it, they will be in a poor position to defend a lot of previously safe territory. That will leave fewer resources to defend weaker seats, let alone challenge weak Republicans.
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