Two more polls came out this morning, both showing a lead for Scott Brown. The PJM poll actually had Brown's lead decrease by 5 points to a 10 point spread, but nobody believed Brown was 15 points ahead. PPP, a firm affiliated with the Democratic Party, shows Brown ahead by 5. That's sort of the kicker. Here is the Rothenberg Report:
While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow's race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat.
Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone's expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win.
Could anything reverse this trend? Of course. But it isn't easy to see what it is. To be sure, the Democrats and their independent allies are spending money like drunken Congressmen. From the Washington Post:
Just how big are the stakes in the Massachusetts Senate race? Independent and party groups were set to spend nearly $5 million on television ads in the final weeks leading up to Tuesday's special election between state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and state Sen. Scott Brown (R).
According to ad-buy information provided to the Fix, there are 13 -- yes, 13 -- groups paying for ads in the race's final days, with Democratic groups outspending Republican-aligned by more than $1 million.
But this kind of spending is effective only when people haven't made up their minds. It might be too late for that in Massachusetts.
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