Herseth-Sandlin Below 50%

A Public Policy Polling survey of South Dakota was released today, and it contains some disturbing news for Congresswoman Herseth-Sandlin.

When it comes to her reelection next year it appears Herseth Sandlin will have a competitive challenge from Secretary of State Chris Nelson. She leads him at this point by a 46-39 margin, but that's a close margin given that Nelson is an unknown to 59% of voters in the state. Among voters who do know Nelson 29% have a favorable opinion of him to 12% unfavorable and he leads Herseth Sandlin 49-43. So this race could tighten up as he becomes better known. Herseth Sandlin leads Nelson 76-11 with Democrats and 47-29 with independents and also holds him to a 62-24 advantage with Republicans. In a strongly GOP tilted state she needs every one of those independent and Republican votes that she can get.

The key finding there is that H-S leads Nelson 46-39%. That spread is worse for the incumbent than it looks. As PPP points out, very few South Dakotans know who Chris Nelson is; yet he only trails H-S by seven points. An incumbent member of the House should be ahead of even a well-known challenger by double digits to feel safe.

Moreover, H-S is polling below 50% at this point, meaning she will have to gain support to secure reelection. The usual pattern in House races is for incumbents to start out ahead and then for the race to tighten a bit in the challenger's favor. That's because the incumbent starts out about as well known as she is going to get. Barring some bad campaigning by the challenger, the incumbent has no untapped source of support.

Likewise, her approval numbers are weak.

Herseth Sandlin sports approval numbers that are well ahead of the curve in a year when the popularity of politicians has hit unusual lows. 49% of South Dakota voters approve of the job she's doing to 38% disapproving.

An approval rating of 49% looks pretty weak for an incumbent. None of this means that Herseth-Sandlin is doomed, but it does mean that she has her work cut out for her.

Why is Herseth-Sandlin weak? One reason may be that her vote against health care reform has weakened her support among activist Democrats. See this post by Doug Wiken from the Keloland blog site, and this one by Cory Heidelberger, and this one, and this one also by Cory. Of course, Cory and his fellow Democratic enthusiasts aren't really going to run a challenge against H-S, let alone vote Republican next November. But this sentiment may translate in weaker than usual support during the campaign and decreased turnout in the general election. As PPP points out, that could spell doom for H-S.

Herseth Sandlin leads Nelson 76-11 with Democrats and 47-29 with independents and also holds him to a 62-24 advantage with Republicans. In a strongly GOP tilted state she needs every one of those independent and Republican votes that she can get.

But the main drag on our lone Congresswoman is the weakness of the Democrats in general and the President in particular among South Dakotans.

52% of voters in the state disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance with just 41% approving. That makes him downright popular compared to Congressional Democrats who get a 60% disapproval rating with only 28% of South Dakotans giving them high marks. And when it comes to the Democratic health care bill that passed the House last month, which Herseth Sandlin prudently voted against, only 25% of voters are supportive with 59% opposed.

This is the Blue Dog dilemma. Her vote against the health care bill might save her if her support improves among Republicans and independents, as you would expect in a normal year. But if her support among those groups is weak, the only thing it does is dampen the spirits of her base.

This poll may have a significant effect on the election outcome. It will surely make it easier for Chris Nelson to raise money in state and out of it. A lot may change over the next year, but to Republicans the lone South Dakota house seat is now one that looks ripe for the pickin'.

Comments

[Travis]

Ken,

I think you make some valid points here - especially the anger among liberals. While I think she has a lot of time to win back some of those votes, I think it shows how angry some of them are - will they stay home and not vote? That is the big question - I would argue no they shouldn't, but I'm a little biased in this one I guess.

One thing I would caution however is the polling itself - we always want to look at who they asked, what they asked and how they asked it. The PPP poll was automated and asked all voters - not just likely voters - both of which can lead to some concerns. Does that mean we shouldn't use the numbers, no, just a concern.

[KB]

Travis: you raise two interesting questions. Should Democrats withdraw support from H-S because of her health care vote? I agree that the answer is no, from the point of view of the Democratic party. That can only lead to another Republican seat in Congress. I would add that H-S probably voted no with the support of Speaker Pelosi, who had enough votes to pass the measure. H-S knew that she wasn't in fact in any danger of blocking the bill. On the other hand, it would be okay with ME if the Dems do withdraw support.

Second, contrary to what I think you say in one of your recent BLB posts, robopolls are in fact pretty reliable. They did well in calling the recent elections in Virginia and New Jersey. As to the matter of all versus likely voters, I certainly agree that the latter is a more reliable indicator of actual outcomes. The next question is what would have happened if the poll had adjusted for likely voters? It's been my experience in poll watching that likely voters are almost always more conservative and Republican leaning than than "all voters." So the recent poll may be worse for H-S than it looks like. That would be bad news indeed.

[Brian]

I really think republicans are tired of calling Johnson and H-S to try to stop some of this socialist stuff this congress is trying to run through. H-S has voted against most of this stuff but Johnson could care less about what his state wants. I believe H-S will be in trouble only because of the perception that no one is listening to the voters of the state.

[Wayne]

Johnson should fill in for Kennedy in Mass. with the way he votes. At least B-N of Neb. is whoring out his vote and getting some comps for his state. I agree Pelosi is just covering for H-S on votes that would be unpopular back home. If it was needed Pelosi could reel her in.

[jack]

When even Herseth is contacted her reply is that she is working on new laws. Why since the old laws are not enforced. Senator Tim Johnson at least replies but nott the question. Why no prosecution for stealing your children's identity?

His reply which is totally off base as it is a federal crime not a civil matter.
http://southdakotagov.wordpress.com/2009/12/18/senator-tim-johnson/