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Tuesday, December 15, 2009




I think you make some valid points here - especially the anger among liberals. While I think she has a lot of time to win back some of those votes, I think it shows how angry some of them are - will they stay home and not vote? That is the big question - I would argue no they shouldn't, but I'm a little biased in this one I guess.

One thing I would caution however is the polling itself - we always want to look at who they asked, what they asked and how they asked it. The PPP poll was automated and asked all voters - not just likely voters - both of which can lead to some concerns. Does that mean we shouldn't use the numbers, no, just a concern.


Travis: you raise two interesting questions. Should Democrats withdraw support from H-S because of her health care vote? I agree that the answer is no, from the point of view of the Democratic party. That can only lead to another Republican seat in Congress. I would add that H-S probably voted no with the support of Speaker Pelosi, who had enough votes to pass the measure. H-S knew that she wasn't in fact in any danger of blocking the bill. On the other hand, it would be okay with ME if the Dems do withdraw support.

Second, contrary to what I think you say in one of your recent BLB posts, robopolls are in fact pretty reliable. They did well in calling the recent elections in Virginia and New Jersey. As to the matter of all versus likely voters, I certainly agree that the latter is a more reliable indicator of actual outcomes. The next question is what would have happened if the poll had adjusted for likely voters? It's been my experience in poll watching that likely voters are almost always more conservative and Republican leaning than than "all voters." So the recent poll may be worse for H-S than it looks like. That would be bad news indeed.


I really think republicans are tired of calling Johnson and H-S to try to stop some of this socialist stuff this congress is trying to run through. H-S has voted against most of this stuff but Johnson could care less about what his state wants. I believe H-S will be in trouble only because of the perception that no one is listening to the voters of the state.


Johnson should fill in for Kennedy in Mass. with the way he votes. At least B-N of Neb. is whoring out his vote and getting some comps for his state. I agree Pelosi is just covering for H-S on votes that would be unpopular back home. If it was needed Pelosi could reel her in.


When even Herseth is contacted her reply is that she is working on new laws. Why since the old laws are not enforced. Senator Tim Johnson at least replies but nott the question. Why no prosecution for stealing your children's identity?

His reply which is totally off base as it is a federal crime not a civil matter.

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