Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska may have wheeled and dealed himself out of a job. In return for his crucial vote for the Senate health care bill, he got a special deal for his home state: extra Medicaid funds.
Well, now he's getting dumped on from two directions. Attorney Generals in thirteen states have demanded that the deal be canceled. It is in fact constitutionally dubious.
But the real problem Nelson has is with the people of Nebraska. Nelson isn't up for reelection until 2012, but he is already running expensive TV ads. From the New York Times:
To explain his vote to critics, he appeared in an advertisement scheduled to be broadcast statewide on Wednesday evening during the one occasion when most Nebraskans were certain to be found before a television — the Holiday Bowl, in which the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers faced the Arizona Wildcats.
Wow. During the Bowl game! That wasn't cheap. Why it seemed like a necessary expenditure is indicated by a Rasmussen poll.
If Governor Dave Heineman challenges Nelson for the Senate job, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows the Republican would get 61% of the vote while Nelson would get just 30%. Nelson was reelected to a second Senate term in 2006 with 64% of the vote.
Nelson's health care vote is clearly dragging his numbers down. Just 17% of Nebraska voters approve of the deal their senator made on Medicaid in exchange for his vote in support of the plan. Overall, 64% oppose the health care legislation, including 53% who are Strongly Opposed.
Ben Nelson is thirty points behind a hypothetical opponent. Trying to pass radical legislation in the face of unambiguous public opposition might matter. This is, after all, a republic.
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