Democratic Crack Up

The MSM has been hoping for a splintering of the Republican Party. They may yet get one. But just right now it is the Democratic Party that appears to be fracturing. Part of this may well be strategic. Howard Dean is screaming again, this time for Democrats to kill the Senate health care bill. I have a hard time imagining that Dean really wants to kill this bill. His opposition, along with that of the left wing blogosphere in general, looks rather tailored to make the Senate bill look moderate. If both the left and the right hate it, that's moderation, no?

But just because you're paranoid, that doesn't mean they're not out to get you. Likewise, just because the leftist core of the Democratic Party may be serving the middle by its opposition, that doesn't mean that the opposition isn't genuine or that it can be easily controlled.

The worse news for the Obama Administration this week concerns the President's Afghanistan policy. A sensible party might have given the Administration a pass on this one, at least until healthcare was safely in the bag, and flowers were blooming again in Copenhagen. But that isn't what is happening. From McClatchy:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday that it's up to President Barack Obama to persuade reluctant Democrats to fund his Afghanistan troop buildup — his most important foreign policy initiative — because she has no plans to do so herself.

Pelosi's reluctance to lobby for an Afghan surge appropriation reflects the deep divisions within the Democratic Party over Obama's decision to send more troops to Afghanistan.

This means that Congressional Democrats defect from Administration policy on Afghanistan. That might be good for the Administration in the long run. Obama will be forced to build a coalition on the minority party, as President Clinton did on NAFTA. That might well make Obama more popular, but it dramatically reduces the effectiveness of the Democratic majority in Congress. The President will have to make deals with the GOP, and he will make the Al Frankens in Congress very angry.

Welcome to the majors, Mr. Obama.

Comments

[Erik]

KB: Some interesting points on foreign policy but on the domestic front, the Democrats were able to keep their coalition together to pass a historic piece of legislation (whatever one thinks of the bill). So, doesn't this speak to the ability of the Democrats to get their majority in order---a majority that is much more ideologically diverse than the Republican minority?

[KB]

Erik: yes. Getting a bill out, as now seems very likely, is a very impressive achievement. But in this case, all the weight in the party was pulling in the direction of radical reform. The hard part was keeping the more vulnerable members on board.

Whatever one thinks of the bill as a matter of policy, the above achievement relies on a very cynical manipulation of the numbers. The true expense of the bill, the fact that it is going to mean spending more rather than less on health care, the dramatic extension of federal powers under the bill, all these things were artfully concealed in order to bring over the moderate Democrats. In spite of all that, public opposition is about as strong as I have seen it on any issue. Unless things change in a big way, I'll be tempted to say next November what you said only a few months ago: that the other party is merely a regional party.