Blue State Beaten and Blue Dog Democrats

First, dispense with a couple of questions beaten to a pulp by the press over the last twenty four hours.

Were the 09 elections a referendum on President Obama?

No. It is no doubt true that the Democrats would have done better if voter approval of the President's policies and those of the Democratic Congress were stronger. However, in an election, voters only get to make a limited number of choices. If an election is a referendum, it is because one of those choices involves someone or something that has been explicitly referred to the voters. President Obama wasn't on the ballot.

Do the Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey mean that the Republicans will win a big victory in 2010?

Again, no. The 09 election shows us that independents are still, well, independent, and that they can swing decisively toward the Republicans. And it shows that a serious enthusiasm gap favored the Republicans. If those circumstances repeat in 2010, then Republicans in deed will deal a bitter blow to the Democrats. But the election last night doesn't tell us whether independents will still be inclined to swing Republican, or whether the GOP will continue to enjoy the momentum.

Now: do this week's election results change political circumstances right now?

Yes, and maybe in a big way. Consider the progress of the healthcare bill. Or lack thereof. From ABC News:

Senior Congressional Democrats told ABC News today it is highly unlikely that a health care reform bill will be completed this year, just a week after President Barack Obama declared he was "absolutely confident" he'll be able to sign one by then.

"Getting this done by the by the end of the year is a no-go," a senior Democratic leadership aide told ABC News. Two other key Congressional Democrats also told ABC News the same thing.

Of course the Democrats have been missing deadlines so consistently in this process that the only meaning left in the President's "absolute confidence" is that the bill absolutely won't be done when he says it will.

But this delay is more problematic than previous ones. It pushes the process over into the real election year, when Congressmen and some Senators who do not enjoy safe districts have to start really worrying. This happens just as we learn that the President cannot be relied on to bring out Democrats and attract young and independent voters as he did during the last election. If he can't save Jon Corzine in New Jersey, who can he save?

A lot of counties in Virginia and New Jersey that voted heavily for Obama voted even more heavily for McDonnell or Christie respectively. What effect might it have on a newly minted house Democrat from one of these two states who saw his own district turn deep red yesterday? It might not in encourage him or her to stand by the President or Nancy Pelosi on a health care bill that will cost a lot more than the President promised and add a great many dimes to the deficit.

The bluedogs have been a problem for reform all along.  They aren't likely to get any easier to deal with now.  Indeed, a lot of dogs might start acting bluer than they did in the past.  The path to ObamaCare got steeper when Jon Corzine conceded last night.

Comments

[A.I.]

Democrats also won two House races Tuesday. Both candidates supported health care reform including a public option. One won (please excuse keyboard stutter) in a long-standing Republican district.

Democrats, as you say, were less enthusiastic than Republicans in the two gubernatorial races. From this, you conclude the safe bet for congress is to back away from health care reform. But one reason the Democratic House candidates won was their support of reform. And the reason a lot of Democrats sat out the races in NJ and Virginia was lack of enthusiasm because a Democratic congress seems to be dithering over reform. So just maybe the better bet is for Democrats to quit hand-wringing and get on with the process of doing what people expected of them when they were handed overwhelming majorities and the Presidency last fall.

[KB]

Democrats did win two House seats. One was safe from the start, and the other fell into their hands because Republicans self-destructed. Even then the latter was close, and more people voted against the Democrat than voted for him.

I did not say that backing away from healthcare reform was a safe bet. I just think that, in fact, a lot of Democrats will have a hard time not backing away. Independents switched sides in a very dramatic way in Virginia and New Jersey. Polls consistently register anger and frustration among independents over the Democratic healthcare plans and the exploding deficits. Democrats sticking to their guns will remedy their side of the enthusiasm gap, but if they lose the independents it won't matter.

A year ago Americans voted in big numbers against George Bush. That helps to explain why Barack Obama is constantly blaming all his problems on Dubya. But Dubya is long gone. Obama's campaign was long on vision and very short on actual policy prescriptions. It is not clear what people thought they were voting for when they voted for change. Now that they are finding out, well, see Virginia.