Speaker Pelosi's healthcare bill passed in the House by 220 to 215. If three Congresspersons had switched sides, the bill would have been defeated. That is in a chamber dominated by Democrats. Of course, it may be that Pelosi had more votes than that; it's just that a lot of her troops begged to be allowed to vote no. But that in itself is a very bad sign.
Why the matter is so difficult is simple. Just right now, the Democrats are in deep doo doo with the people of these United States. One test of party strength is the so called "generic ballot." Voters are asked to say whether they will vote Republican or Democrat in the next House and Senate elections, without regard to individual candidates. As long as I can remember, the generic question always tends to overstate Democratic strength. If the Republicans poll close to Democrats on the generic question just before an election, they tend to win a net gain.
Right now, Republicans are well ahead of Democrats on the generic ballot. Rasmussen has been showing this for some time. Gallup has now confirmed it.
That is the result of five months of public attention to the healthcare reform effort. Gallup has much worse news for the Democrats.
Self-identified Democrats and Republicans predictably favor their own. But look at those numbers for self-identified independents. That is a twenty-two point gap favoring the GOP. If anything like that holds next year, the Republicans will take every seat in the country that isn't tied down. They might even pry a few safe seats up from the floor.
What might change between now and next November? The economy might certainly be looking better, and maybe job growth will have started. But economists do not expect the latter, and it had better happen fast to make a difference. Some Democrats imagine that, once their program comes fully online, the people will like it and reward them accordingly. Even if they are right, it won't come online in time to help. In order to look a little less fiscally irresponsible, they front-loaded the fiscal gains and put off the real benefits (and costs) until much later.
What won't change is this: the Democrats will either fail to pass any significant reform, or if they do pass something significant, it will involve a dramatic expansion of government's size, powers, intrusiveness, and expense. Those are just the things that are driving independents towards the GOP.
UPDATE
From Quinnipiac:
For the first time, Republican Rob Portman is inching ahead of the two Democrats in the 2010 race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Also for the first time, Ohio voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from his 53 - 42 percent approval September 16 and 49 - 44 percent approval July 7.
Also Republican Simons is ahead of Senator Chris Dodd by a good ten points.
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