Public Opposition to ObamaCare

The outcome of an election is determined by two things: how people vote and which people vote. Most voters are not independent. If they vote, they usually vote for the same party. But there can be wild swings in how much of any demographic shows up at the polls. The young voters and African American voters who supported Barack Obama didn't show up in Virginia or New Jersey in big numbers. Disgruntled Republicans who were disgruntled at home over the last two elections were disgruntled in polling booths this time round.

But the most striking fact about Tuesday's election in Virginia is what the independent vote did. In the last two elections, independent voters swung strongly in favor of Democrats. In Virginia, independents swung to Republicans by an astonishing two to one. That's what wining looks like.

Virginia was not a referendum on Obama, but it may well have been determined by the anger and frustration of Republicans and independents over the Democrats healthcare reform bills and the exploding federal deficits.

Just how unpopular is ObamaCare? Mickey Kaus notes that the "robopolls," i.e. automated polls conducted by computers, more accurately predicted the outcome of the Virginia and New Jersey races than did the polls conducted by live interviewers. Rasmussen, for example, was the most accurate of all the polls. If that can be extrapolated to issue polls, then ObamaCare is in very big trouble.

A Rasmussen poll done at the end of October shows a clear majority, 54%, opposed to the Obama/Congressional Democrat's healthcare plan vs. 42% in favor. But that's not the worst news. Only 23% of respondents "strongly favor" the Democrat's healthcare reform plan, while a whopping 44% strongly oppose it. There's your two to one ratio, not to mention your enthusiasm gap.

Another poll, by Ipsos/McClatchy shows 49% opposed to 39% in favor.

Americans are opposed to ObamaCare either by a strong plurality or a clear majority. That, coupled with the behavior of independents in Virginia and New Jersey spells real trouble for Democrats as they try to push through their healthcare plan. Of course, a moment of enlightenment may come when the final bill comes out of conference, if ever it does. On the other hand, it may be that the only way that Obama can win back independents is to start spending responsibly, in which case the Democrats are doomed.

Americans still like Barack Obama. His approval ratings remain marginally above 50%. But we have lost confidence in him in significant ways. When Gallup asked whether Obama had kept the promises he made during the campaign, the overall split was 48% yes, 48% no. But among independents, it was 53% no to 41% yes, and 56% of the independents said that that was very important to them. That may help to explain why the President's four trips to New Jersey weren't enough to make a difference.

UPDATE:  The new CNN poll is more bad news. 

From everything you have heard or read so far, do you favor or oppose Barack Obama's plan to reform
health care?

Favor            45%
Oppose         53%
No opinion     2%

Comments

[Deborah]

My fear is if Demoncrats continue to push thier agenda of obamacare and cap and tax that Americans will get more and more angry and scared.
It should be clear to this administration that the majority of Americans really don't want this, and some are absolutely adamant that this cannot pass.
As a senior citizen who have excellent healthcare through my retirement package, I fear I will lose this, which is some of the only remaining wealth I have.
Another shooting in Orlando and with the one in Fort Hood, it shows how some people will react when they are pushed to the edge. People get crazy when they have no control over what happens in their lives.
I have family in England and hear their stories of long waits and not getting the care they need and want.
We need to stop Soros and Obama from making this into a socialist/fascist nation.
I have never been so scared of my government.