Election Analysis 10pm CT

Blanchard's Wise Predictions (and retroactively wise non-prediction)

As expected, yours truly correctly predicted the outcome of tonight's gubernatorial elections. As I said, Robert McDonnell crushed Creigh Deeds in Virginia. In American elections anything over 10 percent is considered a landslide. With 99% counted, McDonnell won almost 59% of the vote to Deeds' 41%. That is considerably better than McDonnell polled. Only Survey USA got it right, predicting an 18% margin. The rest of the polls were under 15%.

Likewise, Republican William T "Bill" Bolling beat Democrat Jody Wagner for Lt. Governor 56/44%, and Ken Cuccinelli beat Stephen Shannon 58/42.

Somewhat braver (though not all that brave, as I hedged my bet) was my prediction of a narrow victory for Chris Christie over Jon Corzine. Christie won 49/45%.

I neglected to make a prediction in New York 23, which was a good thing for me. Results are still coming in at this hour, but it looks like the Democrat Bill Owens will take the House Seat by a narrow margin over Doug Hoffman. With 77% reporting, Owens leads 49/47%.

Analysis NY23

If Owens does win NY23, that will be a sign of God's grace towards Democrats. They will want to talk all about this one. Maybe exit polling will give us a clearer picture of what happened, but it will be undeniable that the Republicans self-destructed, handing the Democrats a seat they hadn't won in a hundred years. My Spin Witch says they will talk about extremists taking over the party, and the Republican Party splitting at the seams.

But the blame for the loss has to sit with the Republican leadership that nominated Scozzafava. Without a primary to test the voter's sentiments, the party leadership has to be competent to choose a palatable nominee. They didn't have to pick a strict conservative, but surely they could have picked someone who didn't look like (and turned out to be) a Democrat in Republican clothes. Now the Democrats get another House vote, but then, that's what they would have had with Scozzafava.

Analysis Virginia

This was a really significant victory for the GOP. Barack Obama beat John McCain 53/46% in Virginia. Democrats have held the state house in 12 years. This resurgence in Virginia clearly shows that the momentum and enthusiasm has shifted dramatically, from strongly unfavorable to Republicans to strongly favorable, in the months that Obama has been President. It also means that Republicans hold the offices from which future governors and senators can easily launch their campaigns.

Why did McDonnell and company win so big? McDonnell is as conservative as they come, but he focused on the economic issues motivating his base and, just as important, motivating independents. The latter seem to have broken for the Republicans in a big way.

Analysis New Jersey

This was the really big achievement for the GOP today. New Jersey is a solidly blue state (about 2/1 Democrat/Republican in registration). Barack Obama visited the state four times at least in recent weeks, and Joe Biden campaigned there as well. No, New Jersey wasn't a "referendum on the Obama Presidency." It was a referendum on the Corzine governorship and on the government of New Jersey in general. But it was a test of the old Obama magic, and his get up and go has got up and went.

Why did Christie win? The factor that made victory possible was the deep hole that Corzine dug himself in his previous term. What made a Republican victory actual was the tremendous surge in Republican enthusiasm. In some New Jersey counties, Republican turnout was three times greater than in the last gubernatorial election. Or so I think I heard Karl Rove say. Even in New Jersey that can make a difference.

On the other hand, Corzine wouldn't have had a chance without two big advantages. One was independent Chris Daggett. If Daggett had drawn support in the double digits, Corzine would probably have survived. Under 6% (according to the numbers crunchers) and Daggett ceased to be a factor. He drew 5.5%. The other factor was Corzine's deep pockets. He has personally purchased a Senate seat and state house. He spent, I kid you not, $30 million in his attempt to win reelection. Talk about a bad investment. I think he qualifies for a Federal bailout.

Comments

[George Mason]

KB The issue in NY23 will be decided in one year when there will be less
confusion and infighting and the canidates are selected by the people in a
primary. Owens may once again prevail but he will do so by running as fast as he can away from Barack Obama. The big story is in New Jersey where Obama injected himself into the race with the expectation that his presence would pull it out
for Corzine.

[duggersd]

KB, it was probably a good choice not to pick the NY -23 race. Virginia was a no-brainer. NJ is one that I found rather interesting. I have to disagree with your analysis about Daggett. According to some of the polls I was reading Corzine actually out-polled Christie when Daggett supporters were asked about a second choice. Those polls suggeset without Daggett it would have been a closer race. But then who knows about polls? What I was reading yesterday exit polls suggested a Hoffman victory.

[donCoyote]

KB, here's the real poop behind the story being repeated ad nauseum about no Democrat representation since the Civil War. It appears it is only parts of the current 23rd that haven't been represented. Check out this link. Caution, this is for only incurable political geography junkies.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6516/amazing-political-history-of-ny23

[Roger Meyer]

Ken

Just a minor correction. Democrats have held the governor's chair in Virginia for the past 8 years, not 12. The truly amazing statistic was McDonnel carrying northern Virginia. The GOP also picked up legislative seats in that area. It will not be interesting to follow the special election to fill Cuccinelli's senate seat in northern Virginia. He has had very tough races all along.

[Roger Meyer]

I should have said it will now be interesting.