South Dakota Politics: 60 Votes to Debate Healthcare Bill

From the LA Times:

Democrats and their allies formally moved their healthcare bill to the Senate floor tonight, rebuffing Republicans and ensuring that lawmakers will get a long and acrimonious debate on the overhaul of the healthcare system.

All 58 Democrats and the two independents who usually vote with them backed cloture on a motion to proceed, a needed procedural step to bring the Democratic-backed healthcare bill to the floor and open formal debate. Thirty-nine Republicans opposed the motion.

There are two ways to look at this. One is that it signals a willingness on the part of sixty Senators to see something like the current bill passed into law. That might well be true and if it is, then we are going to get a radical restructuring of the American healthcare system. Another way to look at it is that Harry Reid had to pull out all the stops just to get this procedural vote passed, and that he had not a single vote to spare. Michell Bard at the Huffington Post is in no mood yet to uncork the champagne.

The procedure for passing a bill once it comes out of committee consists of four steps. First, there is a vote to open debate. That is what passed today. Second there is the debate. During this time, Senators are allowed to offer amendments and nervous Democrats will certainly offer a lot of those. Third, a vote of cloture (a vote to end debate) must be passed by sixty votes. The Fourth step is for the Senate to actually vote the bill up or down. This requires only a majority.

The decisive step is step three. If Reid loses a single Democrat, or Joe Liebermann, then he can't get a vote on the bill. If he gets sixty votes for cloture, he can surely come up with fifty-one for passage.

But that makes the debate dynamic very complicated. Any one of the Senators who voted yes today can offer an amendment and demand its passage as a price of his or her continued support. Liebermann has said that he will vote against cloture if the public option is still in the bill at that point. It cost the United States $300 million to get the vote of Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. That's being called the "Louisiana Purchase."It is possible that some of the Senators have irreconcilable demands. One Senator might refuse to vote for cloture unless stronger anti-abortion language is added while another might refuse if such language is added.

What is really going to determine the outcome is the judgment of a number of vulnerable Democratic Senators. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas is viewed as the most vulnerable.

What is rather striking right now is how consistently bad the news is regarding public support for the reform effort and for the Democrats in general. President Obama's approval rating is now below fifty in several polls. Moreover, according to Charlie Cook, the President has become "worse than radioactive" in many Democratic districts, meaning that support or association with President Obama may cost a Senator or Congressman reelection.

But a CNN poll just out spells worse news. More Americans blame the Republicans for the recession than blame the Democrats. But the allocation of blame has been steadily shifting for months from the GOP to the Dems.

"The bad news for the Democrats is that the number of Americans who hold the GOP exclusively responsible for the recession has been steadily falling by about two to three points per month," said Keating Holland, CNN polling director. "At that rate, only a handful of voters will blame the economy on the Republicans by the time next year's midterm elections roll around.."

So far the Democrats are behaving very courageously, or foolishly, depending on your perspective. They seem to assume that they're going to take a bath next November, and are taking their one chance to move America closer to Canada. But a vote for the Senate bill may cost some Democrats dearly come next fall.

Comments

The Democrats have painted themselves into this corner. If they pass their "historic" bill, they will lose. If they fail to pass a bill, they will lose. Which case will be the most damaging to their party? Now, that's the question.

It's quite likely that if the Democrats are able to pass a bill out of the Senate and THEN reconcile a joint bill with the House, that the Republicans will pick up even more seats in 2010 by promising to repeal it.

The public wants changes made to health care delivery, insurance and costs but the more they know about the specific changes being forwarded by the Democratic Party the stronger their opposition is to them.

As is said, the "Devil's in the details" and the details of the Democrats bills are poisonous.

Posted by: William | Sunday, November 22, 2009 at 09:32 AM