Election 09 Report

Two governor's seats will be awarded on Tuesday, in Virginia and New Jersey. An unusual amount of attention is focused on these two races. The reason is that they are the first real test of political climate change. Almost a year ago a lot of people were writing obituaries for the Republican Party. That was not completely silly. Two elections do not a realignment make, but they surely could have been the beginning of a strong and long lasting realignment toward the Democratic Party. What a difference eleven months make!

Virginia Projection

The Republican candidate in Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell, looks poised to crush the Democrat, Creigh Deeds. Less attention has been paid to the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General races. Republican candidates seem likely to take both of those seats by similar margins.

Virginia Tea Leaves

Virginia has been moving left in recent elections. Democrats have held the State House for a decade, and Barack Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in 45 years. The President has been vigorously campaigning there for Deeds. A Republican sweep of the top three offices will look like a resurrection for the Virginia GOP. Republicans will spin the election as a referendum on Obama and the Democratic Congress. Democrats, and the White House in particular, have written it off as a lost cause. Their spin: Deeds ran a bad campaign and ran away from the President.

New Jersey Projection

Incumbent Jon Corzine has been trailing Republican Chris Christie for most of the year, but in some recent polls Corzine now has a small lead. If the Quinnipiac poll is right, Corzine will win by a small but comfortable margin. If Rasmussen and PPP are right, Christie will squeak out a victory. The wild card is independent candidate Chris Daggett. Daggett can't win, but he may get 10% of the vote. The question is how big his margin is and whose voters he takes. I don't know which way to call this one, but I predict a narrow victory for Christie. Why? Because if I am right I will look smart, and if I am wrong, I will be funny.

New Jersey Tea Leaves

If the Republican does win in New Jersey, that will be very hard news for the Democrats. The GOP will spin a story of shifting tides and a spendthrift President and Congress alienating their own base. Democrats will argue that Corzine did better than Deeds because he ran left and supported the President. That same Democratic spin will work a lot better and be a lot more fun if Corzine survives. Republicans will say that Corzine once again bought an election by spending a lot of his own money, which will be true. Still, he bought it fair and square.

Summary

If Virginia goes as expected the day will belong to the Republicans. Virginia has been one of the most watched states in recent elections. Republican presidential candidates can't win without it. If Christie wins in New Jersey, it won't mean much for the long term. Republicans have no future in that state. But it will put big wind in the sails of the party nationally. If Corzine holds on, it will feed the Democratic narrative that the Party can be successful if only it holds true to its basic principles. That might be the message that saves the party, and it might be the message that wrecks it.

Comments

[A.I.]

This from the Washington Post: "Seven in 10 Virginia voters say their views of President Obama, who is scheduled to campaign Tuesday with Deeds in Norfolk, will not be a factor in their choice for governor. The rest are about evenly divided between those who say their vote will be motivated by their desire to express support for the president and those who want to voice opposition to him, suggesting that Obama might not be a decisive figure in the contest and that the race is not the early referendum on the Obama presidency many have suggested it would be." The rest is here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/26/AR2009102602414.html

So if you are correct about how both Republicans and Democrats will spin this race, it appears neither will have much basis in fact.

[KB]

Actual influence is rather harder to measure than simply asking people whether the President is a factor in their voting. Republicans now seem to be enjoying a pronounced "enthusiasm gap" the effects of which will ripple down the ticket. President Obama has something to do with that. His opposition is energized and his supporters ain't.

But we agree in general. Governor's races are referendums on the two candidates. Almost everyone will make their choice based on their estimation of the two men and what they stand for.

[Art Marmorstein]

"Virginia has been moving left in recent elections"

Yes, but it seems to me also there was a Democrat bait-and-switch thing going on here. Rahm Emmanuel's "red into blue" strategy involved picking moderate to conservative candidates who sometime ran to the right of their Republican opponents. Particularly true in the South, yes? The left interpreted Dem gains as an endorsement of their policies, but was there a real shift to the left in voter intent?

[GeneK]

A couple of observations.

Over a year ago Bob McDonnell took control of the Republican Party of Virginia. He understood that to win you needed to appeal to the middle--which is exactly what he did. He has earned the win. He had McCain and Romney campaign with him--no photo ops with Huckabee and Palin. Might be a lesson there.

If the campaign Creigh Deeds ran is any indication of his executive talent--he's not ready to be Governor. He won a three way primary where the two losers just bloodied each other and he was the last one standing. If either of the two losers had been the nominee they might have made a better showing but win--I don't think so. The mood in Virginia has shifted--probably not much but it created an opportunity.

[KB]

Good comments. I am not sure that the Virginia election is a referendum on Obama, as the Republicans will argue. But I think the Republican rebound in that state would not have happened if Bush were still President or if President Obama had been the uniter that he promised to be rather than the divider that he turned out to be. In all fairness, uniting the country probably wasn't possible. But when the President did his media blitz a few weeks ago, and intentionally left out Fox News, his people justified it by saying that the Fox audience wasn't open to their message. Perhaps not. But writing off a large portion of the TV audience, including a lot of independents, is surely a divisive strategy. It may not have served the Democrats well in a state like Virgina.

Art: yes, the Democrats have managed to run a lot of conservative candidates in red districts. Smart strategy for elections, but it has given them a lot of headaches as they try to move legislation.

Gene: Your analysis seems on the mark. McDonnell shows that a very conservative candidate can build a strong campaign by enlarging his coalition. That looks like a recipe for success. And yes, Deeds has been a poor campaigner. But that is a indication that Virginia is, if purple, more redish than blue.