Warning Signs for Democrats

I do not know what is going to happen in November of 2010. I do know that the signs for the Democrats are very ominous just right now. Analyst Charlie Cook has the best thing I have seen on this, from the National Journal:

Listening to two briefings -- one by a Democratic pollster who had just conducted a survey for a group favoring health care reform, the other by a Republican pollster more skeptical of the reform plans -- I felt as if I were hearing a pair of reports by the National Transportation Safety Board on the same plane crash…

Independent voters -- fired up by the war in Iraq and Republican scandals -- gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress in 2006. Two years later, independents upset with President Bush and eager to give his party another kick expanded the Democratic majorities on the Hill. Late in the campaign, the economic downturn, together with an influx of young people and minorities enthusiastic about Obama, created a wave that left the GOP in ruins.

That was then; this is now. For the seven weeks from mid-April through the first week of June, Obama's weekly Gallup Poll approval rating among independents ran in the 60-to-70 percent range. But in four of the past five weeks, it has been only in the mid-to-high 40s. Meanwhile, Democrats and liberals seem lethargic even though Republicans and conservatives are spitting nails and can't wait to vote.

Cook thinks that two intertwined concerns are at the root of this shift: a concern for our economic future, and a fear of a dramatic enlargement of government. I suspect he's right on both counts, as this helps explain the wreck that the Democrats have so far made of healthcare reform. And here is the crescendo:

With 14 months to go before the 2010 midterm election, something could happen to improve the outlook for Democrats. However, wave elections, more often than not, start just like this: The president's ratings plummet; his party loses its advantage on the generic congressional ballot test; the intensity of opposition-party voters skyrockets; his own party's voters become complacent or even depressed; and independent voters move lopsidedly away. These were the early-warning signs of past wave elections. Seeing them now should terrify Democrats.

If you are a Republican, this probably puts the wind in your sails. That calls for some reserve at this point. If you are a Democrat, be afraid. Be very afraid.

One indication that the tide has shifted against the elder party is that so many signs seem to be going south at the same time. I have pointed out the apparent advantage of Republican candidates in statehouse races in Virginia and New Jersey, and the alarming poll numbers for Senator Harry Reid. But this next one came out of left field.

Mickey Kaus notes these "gruesome" poll numbers concerning approval of labor unions. From Gallup:

Gallup finds organized labor taking a significant image hit in the past year. While 66% of Americans continue to believe unions are beneficial to their own members, a slight majority now say unions hurt the nation's economy. More broadly, fewer than half of Americans -- 48%, an all-time low -- approve of labor unions, down from 59% a year ago.

Is it really good news for "organized labor's image" that 66% of Americans think that unions are beneficial to their own members, as that second sentence seems to suggest? In fact, Gallup's measure of public approval for labor unions has never dropped below fifty percent, until now. That looks to me like a shift in the plates underlying the political scene. Here is an historical graph:

The same shift among independents mentioned above occurs here as well.  Here is a second Gallup chart:

The shift among independents is tectonic. 

A little political science perspective here: both Ronald Reagan and Margret Thatcher (praised be her name!) cemented their political positions and turned their respective economies around by taking firm action against obstinate unions. Barack Obama, by contrast, began his term in office by bailing out the dysfunctional automobile giants. The U.S. Government spent billions to take control of a major industry. See fear of government expansion above. And the automobile worker unions? Not so much as a pay cut. Well, at least it was beneficial to union members.

If the Democrats do take a bath next year, we may look back at the car bailout, not healthcare or cap and trade, as the big mistake.

Comments

[FascistSocialist]

OMG OBAMA HAS RUINED OUR ECONOMY AND GUTTED OUR PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS FOR 8 YEARS AND WE NEED REPUBLICANS TO COME AND FIX EM UP FAST! LET'S GO VOTE!

[KB]

FS: Again you seem to miss the point. I said nothing about whether the voters are wise to shift their allegiance from the Democratic Party. I just pointed out the signs that they are in fact doing so and speculated as to one of the causes. The Democrats have in fact burnt through a tremendous amount of political capital in a very short time, no?