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Sunday, September 13, 2009


Travis Dahle

I agree with you Dr. Blanchard that at the moment the Dems seem to be in trouble. However, a month is a lifetime in politics, so 14 months is too long of a time to assume anything (which you do say you're not sure what will happen). It would be interesting to track something month by month to see a continuous trend - that might give us a better idea of what is going to happen. Also, love the reference to Waiting for Godot.


Thanks, Travis. And good luck with that "a month is a lifetime" thing. It worked for Republicans, who were way behind only a short time ago.

George Mason

The trend that is most likely to occur is Democrats (especially Blue Dogs)beginning to find ways and methods separate themselves from Obama. Look
for this around Christmas as the dawn of the election year is in sight.
Obamas inexperience and incompetence can no longer be overcome with vacuous
eloquence, and are unlikely to be cured by New Years day 2010.


Regarding New Jersey and Virginia, I wouldn't be counting those chicks just yet: http://www.americablog.com/2009/09/movement-for-democratic-candidates-for.html


If the Monmouth/Gannett is right, it represents an almost ten point reversal from what the earlier M/G poll showed and what every other poll is showing. I still think that an incumbent governor who has been polling like Corzine is probably toast.


A.I.: the story you link to cites the M/G poll, and misrepresents what the poll shows. The one point Corzine lead is among registered voters, which doesn't help much. Among likely voters, Christie leads Corzine by eight points. Corzine's job approval and personal evaluations are in the toilet. Of course things may change by November, but I can't see how Corzine's situation could look much worse than this at this point.

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