Carbon Restrictions Mean Lights Out in Britain

Any serious attempt to dramatically cut carbon emissions is going to mean draconian cuts in living standards. Maybe the one is really called for, though I am skeptical; but those pushing cap & trade and similar kinds of legislation in Europe haven't been open about the other.

Or at least not until now. This from The London Telegraph:

Demand for power from homes and businesses will exceed supply from the national grid within eight years, according to official figures.

The shortage of supplies will hit the equivalent of many as 16 million families for at least one hour during the year, it is forecast.

The admission that Britain will face power-cuts is contained in a document that accompanied the Government's Low Carbon Transition Plan, which was launched in July.

Ed Miliband, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, outlined the plan amid much fanfare.

Britain has an Energy and Climate Change Secretary?

The looming problem in Britain is caused by the scheduled closure by 2015 of nine oil and coal-fired power plants. They are the victim of an EU directive designed to cut pollution.

In addition, four existing nuclear power plants are set to be shut, adding to the need for new sources of energy.

Labour failed for several years to commit to a new generation of nuclear power stations. Several reviews and rows with the green lobby delayed any definitive statement on the issue.

So Britain is going to close some perfectly good oil and coal-fired power plants, maybe keep open some nuclear plants that are supposed to be decommissioned, but can't seem to get around to building new nuclear plants. The only good news here for the Brits is this:

Greg Clark, the shadow climate and energy change secretary… pointed out that the scale of the blackouts could in fact be three times worse than the Government predictions. He said some of the modelling used was "optimistic" as it assumes little or no change in electricity demand up until to 2020. It also assumes a rapid increase in wind farm capacity. There is also the assumption that existing nuclear power stations will be granted extensions to their "lifetimes".

That's good news if the bit about a rapid increase in wind farm capacity means that there won't in fact be such a rapid increase. Wind power doesn't curb pollution and it doesn't provide a net gain in power. So if they can't manage to increase wind power like they plan because, basically, they are lousy and doing anything they plan to do, that's unexpected good news, no?

So maybe there is hope than it looks like. But that's true only if the government responds to the present situation with the same incompetence that got it there in the first place.

Comments

[A.I.]

So "the equivalent of many as 16 million families" will be effected for one out of every 8760 hours 8 years hence--maybe. Not very scary stats if I understand them correctly. I don't think there has been a year in my lifetime that my home wasn't without power longer than that.

[KB]

Nothing ever bothers you, does it? You are missing the point, I think. Occasional power outs due to storms, equipment failures, etc., are indeed a fact of life on the power grid. Those things will not go away in England. But to that will be added another sixteen million house/hours of blackout time due not to malfunctions but to lack of capacity. That is entirely due to a failure of policy.

[Michael]

So we are reduced to hoping for continued incompetence on the part of a government that once ruled the world? I suppose as long as the goal is reasonable, hope remains.

[George Mason]

With apologies to Professor Blanchard, government is the last refuge of the
incompetent. This why the budget projections never match reality. See Medicare,
Social Security and Obama's no cost universal health insurance. The lights are
not the only thing that will go out.

[A.I.]

You forgot to explain the 8 years hence part. That's approximately when Medicare becomes insolvent too--if current trends continue.

Doom-and-gloom forecasts become true only if we let them. And fyi, lots of things bother me always. But, I can't really get serious about screeds driven by political ideology applied to scientific or simple-logic reality.

You can argue that global warming doesn't exist or government can do nothing right and thus should not intercede. It is your right as a free-speaking American. And I can choose to laugh (be light-hearted in the discussion) because if I don't, the alternative is to cry.

I don't know the details of the problem Britain faces and my guess is you don't either. I mean that in light of workable alternatives. Co-ops in SD offer customers a dual-fuel option that lets the coop shut down electricity when demand exceeds supply. It happens rarely, as in your forecast for Britain. When is does happen, customers don't notice the interruption. While that may not be the solution, perhaps there is some other way for lower-percentage-carbon blue skies to continue to shine over Britain.

[KB]

A.I.: All I know about Britain is what I read in the Times, the Telegraph, the Guardian, and other papers. But I do read. The British Government has known for a long time that it was going to have to shut down a lot of power plants and it did not adequately prepare for that. At present, the only serious alternative to fossil fuels is nuclear power, and the Brits have been lax in planning for new nuclear plants.

The fact that the government projects modest blackouts years from now is very alarming because it happened at all. Governments are irresistibly tempted to paint rosy scenarios. It will probably be much worse. But the most serious sign of incompetence is the idea that wind power is part of the solution to their energy problem. That may one day be true, though I doubt it. But in the foreseeable future, wind power makes everything worse. It absorbs energy rather than producing it, costs jobs, and leads to increases in carbon emissions. Precisely if you think global warming is serious, you would want to get this straight.

Like you, I find a lot to laugh about here.

[Sashandeep]

I would just like to take this oppertunity to thank a few pploee for helping me to get to this point in my skiing career.Firstly I would like to thank my Mum, Step dad, step Bro and step grandparents for getting me started and for supporting me. Without you I wouldnt even have known what ski racing was and would certainly not have the funds to do it. Very grateful to Greg and Roy for putting together the boat and for looking after me during the races and for pushing me on when i needed it.Many thanks also for giving up your time to help me train on the water.Cheers Chris, Dan and Noel for giving up your time to help me with my training and for giving me advice on training and diet.To every team that has ever pulled me in Club, National and European races, you have all helped me to become the skiier i am today, thanks.Everyone at hunstanton club for your advice and support and to anyone else who has ever given me any advice on skiing technique,grateful to you all.For the Karl Brooks fund for equipment and training around the world.To Murfet devs for allowing me a bit of time off work to train and thanks for your support.To the selectors for giving me the chance to achieve my dream.I am sorry if i have left anyone out but truth is that I am in the team not just for me but for all of the pploee who have helped me in the past or present.I wont let you down!I would also like to congratulate everyone else who made it.

[Crstiano]

Howard it doesn't seem long ago that my brother and I were kids joniing Penarth Ski Club, my father was younger than I am now, and already you were a long-time member of the club, along with your brother Dave and of course your mum dad.50 years in any sport is a long time and I know that you have given a lot so that others can enjoy their time on the water. But few will know all that you did behind the scenes at local, regional, national and international level, right up until now.From me, thanks for all that you've done for the sport and for the fun friendship over the years and for all the times you thrashed the likes of me and Jonesy on the squash court.But thanks too for everything that you, your brother your mum dad have done. As a family, you gave an immense amount to water ski racing. So to the Smith Family a very big thank you!