Obama Stimulus Plan: Results Are In

It is not often that an economic policy offers a really clear standard by which it's results can be measured. The Obama economics team, perhaps on purpose, provided just such a standard. The dark blue line above represents the unemployment rate if the stimulus package passed. The Light blue line which peels off from the former in the first quarter of 2009 represents the Obama team estimates of what the unemployment rate would be without the stimulus package.

Since the stimulus package did pass and go into effect, actual results should be closely correlated with the dark blue line. The Maroon dots represent the actual numbers, which are worse than either estimate.

By his own standards, then, Obama's stimulus plan is a failure. Unemployment is higher than it would have been if the stimulus had been defeated. Of course one could always argue that it would have been even worse without the stimulus package. But that kind of argument works no matter how bad the results are.

Comments

[Erik]

KB,
Thanks for posting this. I think it is far too premature to judge Obama on anythig at this point. As for his predecessor, it is important to remember that he inherited a budget *surplus* from President Clinton. From the perspective of the balanced budget activists, both Bush the Younger and the GOP Congress were incredibly irresponsible with our tax money.
e2

[KB]

Erik:

Obama is President. He is now in charge, not Bush. He has to take all the responsibility for his own policies. If he says 'policy X will produce result Y in time Z,' then policy X is up for review by time Z.

The chart above illustrates Obama's promises for his stimulus policy. He said "this is what will happen if we don't pass my policy, and what will happen if we do." It also illustrates what actually did happen. By his own account, his policy is a failure.

[locksmith e2]

At this moment I am going away to do my
breakfast, when having my breakfast coming over again
to read additional news.