I have this to add to the news that Secretary of State Chris Nelson is considering a run against Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin for Congress. Perhaps this is an obvious point, but one of the best tools to read the political tea leaves is to look at candidate recruitment. If one looks at candidates as entrepreneurs, then they decide to seek office when they calculate they have a solid chance of winning. One reason you knew Democrats were going to do well in 2006 and 2008 is that everywhere you looked quality Democrats were stepping up to challenge Republicans whereas quality Republican candidates were deciding not to challenge potentially vulnerable Democrats. As circular as this reasoning may be, Chris Nelson's very entry into the race will be evidence that Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is vulnerable.
Chris Nelson represents a quality challenger to Herseth-Sandlin. The main case to make for his quality as a candidate is the fact that he has already demonstrated the ability to win statewide races. Granted, running for Secretary of State is not the same as running for Congress, but it's not nothing. Nelson's name recognition is certainly below the congresswoman's, but it won't be as long a ride to increase that name recognition to where it needs to be as it was for the likes of Bruce Whalen and Chris Lein.
Should Nelson choose to run, the proof will be in the money pudding. He's got to raise enough money to make Herseth-Sandlin sweat, something she hasn't had to do for a while. \
Of course this is all speculation right now. Let's wait until someone actually files papers to start the serious discussion.
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