Global Warming On Hold

Here is an interesting piece on the current crisis, from Discovery News:

According to a new study in Geophysical Research Letters, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.

Earth's climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.

"This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn't have one."

Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate. In 1997 and 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed rapidly in what Swanson called a "super El Nino event." It sent a shock wave through the oceans and atmosphere, jarring their circulation patterns into unison.

How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.

The discrepancy gets to the heart of one of the toughest problems in climate science -- identifying the difference between natural variability (like the occasional March snowstorm) from human-induced change.

But just what's causing the cooling is a mystery. Sinking water currents in the north Atlantic Ocean could be sucking heat down into the depths. Or an overabundance of tropical clouds may be reflecting more of the sun's energy than usual back out into space.

"It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970s was due to a free variation in climate," Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey wrote in an email to Discovery News. "Suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again."

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it's just a hiccup, and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

"When the climate kicks back out of this state, we'll have explosive warming," Swanson said. "Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive."

Let’s review, shall we? 

1.       There has been no global warming for at least eight years, according to these climate scientists.  I gather that this is the consensus. 

2.      During that time, man-made greenhouse gases have been increasing.

3.      The climate models on which global warming predict an increase in temperature, contrary to what actually happened. 

4.      No one seems to have any idea why this cooling period is taking place. 

5.      It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970s was due to a free variation in climate.”

6.      You can count on global warming kicking back in in about, oh, thirty years or so. 

Now that’s a lot to chew on.  Consider items 1-3: that’s what we used to call “falsification.”  It’s something every legitimate scientific theory or hypothesis must be subject to.  Of course one piece of contrary evidence doesn’t mean that the former is false, but it certainly does weaken it.  Number five is very significant because that period of pretty steep warming has always constituted the main empirical evidence for AGW.  But in spite of having no idea why the climate is behaving like it is, Dr. Swanson reassures us that “warming will return and be very aggressive.”  How he could possible know that is anyone’s guess. 

Surely thirty years of grace when it comes to global warming should be good news?  I predict that this study will completely uninteresting to the mainstream press.

Comments

[Dan]

Well looks like humankind is doing something about it. I really thought that no one actually cares about this topic. This is good news. People are actually doing something.

[Climate Chaos]

Look to the reduced solar output and the lack of sunspots. There are several scientists that have hypothesis on the cooling due to decreased solar activity. And the sunspots continue to not appear?

[KB]

It is altogether possible that there are natural forces that are driving climate change. But I am as skeptical of these explanations as I am of Anthropogenic Global Warming. I just don't think we can know with any useful precision what the climate is going to do next.

Thanks for the comment,
Ken

[Donald]

1. It is not the consensus:

"In fact, the planet as a whole has warmed since 1998, even in the years when surface temperatures have fallen."

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14527

"Global warming goes on."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080923c.html

2. True.

3. The climate models only predict the warming trend: they did not predict the unusually warm 1998, or the unusually cold 2007/2008- these are "outlier" events.

4. A moderate La Nina began in 2007. 1998 was an unusually hot year due to an El Nino. These two exceptional events distort the picture if they are chosen as the beginning and end points of a trend. In the long term, they may still be part of a warming trend. As the New Scientist article makes clear, it may well be possible that the "missing heat" is being stored up in the oceans- to re-appear later?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080923c.html

5. Possible.

6. Or it could be three. Other climate scientists have predicted record warm temperatures again once the influence of the latest La Nina fades:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081230.html

[KB]

Donald: It is characteristic of most of the scientifically literate press that it always says the same thing about global warming no matter what the story is. Your article from New Scientist, which I read frequently, does indeed say that "the planet as a whole has warmed since 1998." But then it provides a chart, which includes the two hemispheres and the global temperature anomalies. The latter shows a downward line. I am not sure this means anything long term, but it is what the numbers show.

[Ntokozo]

Sallie we are actually loiokng at homes now, because we are in the process of moving. My husband (pastor) is being called to another church in a large city (Phoenix). This is the first home we've been able to buy, so our specific tastes in what is homey are really coming out! We both agree, thankfully, on open, light spaces in the house, and a great outdoor area where we can enjoy being outside. (we've worn out our front porch rockers here it's our talking place, away from tv, internet and kids! (although sometimes the kids join us)I like cozy spaces, but not dark. Informal, yet put together furnishings, good smells happening and a big space to entertain or have small group Bible studies.Not sure if this is what you were going for but here it is. LOLChristie

[Aditya]

Sallie, yes Gilby is a Maltese! I never thought of mylesf as a dog person and then, well, God gave me Gilby, and I guess I discovered that I really am a dog person (or a least a gilby person ).Oh . . . and yall mentioned earlier in the comments about smells. I didn't really understand how important they were until I moved here and no longer smelled home or comfort or christmas or what-have-you. So, my last visits home have always included shopping for plug-ins and candles for the different seasons of the year. They make such a difference!!

[Criss]

From the BBC Link - “Start Quote There is also the rising trend in cabron dioxide, and that is acting in the same direction as the ozone hole” End Quote, Dr Sarah Kang, Columbia University _______________ The rising trend in CO2 levels correlates with population rise, even though nearly all population rises happen in under-developed countries. (1billion people rise, 20ppm rise in CO2) Maybe ozone holes correlate with population. _______________________________________________________ Followed by some blather about weather in the UK -These high-altitude winds are key to determining weather patterns, in both hemispheres. Much of the cold weather felt in the UK over the last couple of winters, for example, was caused by blocking of the Northern Hemisphere stream. _______________________________________________________ The Columbia team found that overall, the ozone hole has resulted in rainfall moving south along with the winds. But there are regional differences, particularly concerning Australia. In terms of the average for that zone, [the ozone hole drives] about a 10% change but for Australia, it's about 35%, Dr Kang told BBC News. ____________________ So it's a scientific fact that a hole in the ozone causes rain? There is of cause a peer reviewed scientific paper that shows this, isn't there? Or is this just correlation proving causation? ________________________________________________________ Their modelling indicated that global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions was also a factor although natural climate cycles are also thought to be important, as Australia suffered severe droughts in the era before ozone depletion and before the warming seen in the late 20th Century. This study does illustrate the important point that different mechanisms of global change are contributing to the climate impacts we're seeing around the world, observed Professor Myles Allen of Oxford University, a leading UK climate modeller. It's very important to unpack them all rather than assuming that any impact we see is down simply to greenhouse gas-mediated warming. " ________________ So the study shows that by opportunistically throwing in unvalidated data into a computer model can cause impacts to modelers the world over. And of cause the last line does say they wouldn't jump to any conclusions even though they had.You believe that and I got a computer model to sell you!