South Dakota Politics

Our Election is the World’s Election

When Bill Clinton had just taken office, a student of mine who was in the National Guard expressed his disgust. "There are a lot of military people I know," he said, "who won't accept Bill Clinton as President." It was a course in Constitutional Law, and I found it necessary to scold the young man, which is not something I often do. "Bill Clinton is the Commander in Chief of the Republic," I said sternly, "and the army of the Republic will damn well do what he tells it to do."

The odds suggest that Barack Obama will be our next Commander in Chief. Or maybe it will be John McCain. One man or another will be Captain. By virtue of our sovereign action as voters, he will take charge of the most powerful and prosperous regime the world has yet seen. He will be my President and yours, regardless of how we voted.

But our President is also President of the World. Ralph Peters, writing in the New York Post, has the best election eve comment I have yet seen.

No matter which presidential candidate we choose tomorrow, his decisions to act or not to act will determine not only the safety of our country but the future of the world.

Allies and non-aligned states kick and complain, but expect us to make their boo-boos go away. Ignore the nonsense about America's (oft-predicted and yet to be witnessed) decline: We remain the indispensable power.

Barack Obama may soon learn to appreciate this bit of wisdom:

The greatest danger to the United States and the world isn't from a president who does too much, but from one who does too little - or one who believes that words substitute for deeds. There are times when we must act, and damn the torpedoes.

For our part, we, the people, must accept that we'll never be loved by each last Syrian secret policeman. Jealousy is far too powerful an emotion. If we expect thanks, we'll always be disappointed. We must back our presidents when they do what is right, even if the world does not applaud.

That words and deeds bit is good meat for the man who would negotiate with every cutthroat on the planet. But here is the heart of the essay:

An American president too anxious to please the world is bound to do it great harm. Should the American electorate choose Sen. Barack Obama tomorrow, his first challenge will be deciding which groups of his supporters he'll disappoint first. The struggle against Islamist fanaticism will continue to demand costly, long-term commitments - it isn't a problem we can solve by sending in the San Francisco Police Department.

Without our military leadership, our allies would restrict themselves to defense in the global terror emergency. And you can't win on defense. Nature may abhor a vacuum, but terrorists love one. The demand for disciplined, capable men and women in American uniforms is only going to increase (while economic problems and campaign promises will threaten defense budgets). In this horribly troubled world, our troops remain the ultimate foreign aid. Only they protect us from global darkness.

All the conflict-resolution theories in the world aren't worth a single rifleman with an American flag on his sleeve. Aggressors won't be stopped with earnest petitions, and terrorists don't cower at repartee. As Jimmy Carter learned so very painfully, good will is no substitute for strength.

"All the conflict-resolution theories in the world aren't worth a single rifleman with an American flag on his sleeve." I wish I had written that. I hope Barack Obama reads it.

Blanchard on South Dakota Public Radio Election Panel

I'll be in Vermilion tomorrow night, sitting on the South Dakota Public Radio Election Night Panel, with Paul Guggenheimer.  We're scheduled to begin about 8 pm.  Charmingly enough, SDPR hasn't been available lately in the Aberdeen area.  But where ever you might be, if you have a computer you can listen in.  Go to this link, and click on the Live Radio Webcast button on the left.  I think you have to have Real Player installed, but you can probably download it there if you don't. 

Predictions, For What It's Worth

Obama: 54%, McCain: 46%.  Obama 338 electoral votes. 

Democrats end up with 59 Senate votes.  Unless they don't. 

Election Shaman Conjures Up McCain Victory!

But it's gonna require some par'ful magic, as we sometimes say down South. Tim Harper, Washington Bureau Chief for The Star.com, gives us five things the Democrats worry about. Election Shaman can work with these.

First: polls are atightening in several battleground states. Okay, so "tighten" here is a relative term. McCain is down by seven in Penn, but he was down by fourteen! The Mason-Dixon poll has him down by 4! Shake the rattle. Anything under five is not out of reach. And what about Ohio? Mason-Dixon (may the spirits stuff their pillows with sweet smelling feathers) have McCain up by 2! The RCP poll has McCain out by 4.2, which is not out of reach. M-D has Obama up 2 in Florida and McCain up 3 in North Carolina. Now all this is a lot of losing by a little for the Senator from Arizona. On the other hand, the RCP average has some change in five state polls, three (Arkansas, South Dakota, and Arizona) away from strong McCain to weak or toss up, and two (Ohio and Virginia from leaning Obama to toss up. But McCain is going to win the first three and might well win the last two. Shake the rattle.

And use the magic word: Surge! Surrrrrge. Shake, shake. Now hear the spirit voices. Investors Business Daily, the most accurate poll in 2004, has McCain down by only 4.5 points. Better yet, 8.7% are still undecided. Maybe there is a real but largely invisible surge for McCain. What kind would you expect from E.S.?

Now weave the spell: Go to sleep little babies. Says Harper, while early voting is up dramatically, very little of that vote is coming from the under 35 crowd. If they don't show up Tuesday, like they have been showing up for Obama rallies, a lot of pollsters will have fried statistics all over their faces come Wednesday. Shake.

Now put one more thing in the spirit pot, and toss in a lit match. Nobody knows whether the Bradley effect is or ever was real, or how to measure it in advance. But that doesn't stop you Election Shaman. If the Bradley effect is 6 points, and all the rest of the magic works, flash of light, loud report, cloud of pink smoke, and President McCain!

Do I really believe in any of this? Yeaaaaaaah…No. I expect that, when the polls close on the East Coast, McCain's hopes will rapidly evaporate. I won't be surprised if he carries North Carolina. I will be mildly surprised if he carries Florida. If he carries Pennsylvania and Virginia, I am going into the Shaman business full time. Got a sick cow? No problem. I think there is a good chance now that McCain will not be humiliated, but no more than a good chance.

If McCain should pull it out, along the lines I have suggested, I predicted it here.

Minor Party Candidates For President

Given that both major party presidential candidates have articulated fiscally irresponsible agendas, this is a great year to look to a minor party candidate for president.  Here is a debate between Bob Barr (Libertarian), Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party) and Ralph Nadar (Independent). 

Obama Tells SF Chroncile He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry

Obama will bankrupt the coal industry with carbon taxes?  Audio at the link.

UPDATE:  More about Obama's anti-coal stance at the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Life In The Blogosphere

Frank J. at IMAO produces the following picture:

You could substitute maybe 85% of political blogs for Daily Kos in this description. 

Today's must read is Rod Dreher.  A sample:

In my back yard the other night, we sat by the fire, several of us, talking about what we'd do if hard times came and realizing that we have no idea, no idea at all. None of us have serious debt, but we confessed that we'd spent these fat years drinking too much Heineken and saving too little. Who has much in savings, anyway? Old folks like my father, that's who.

Sometimes you get to thinking that a stiff slug of forced austerity might be good for us all. It would compel us to become more self-reliant, to focus more on our families and communities, and to cultivate simplicity. I'm susceptible to this fantasy, but then I remember how my grandfather had to be away from his wife and kids for four grueling years, on the road trying to make a living. Many nights, if my dad or his brother hadn't shot any squirrels in the woods that day, there was no meat on the table.

Besides, sudden shattering poverty and the subsequent social unraveling in Weimar Germany didn't work out so great for the world, did it? Show of hands: Who's confident that contemporary America, which lacks the social cohesion the nation had in the 1930s, would be able to pull together as it did during the Great Depression?

Alphabet Soup Ballot Picks

I am guessing that my readers will guess how I am voting on the Presidential, Senatorial, and House races. Republican all three. Fat lot of good it will do me.

Here are my votes on the ballot flotsam and jetsam.

Yes on Amendment G. It's silly that the constitution restricts reimbursement to our legislators for travel to and from a legislative session. Change it.

Yes on Amendment H, which would repeal constitutional limitations on corporations in South Dakota. I don't think that there should be constitutional limitations on corporations. That is a matter for statue law. So I am voting yes. My Keloland colleagues Todd Epp and Cory Heidelberger don't like corporations. They think all our stuff should be provided free of charge by fairies. I think the real question is whether these restrictions make South Dakota corporations more or less competitive than corporations in other states.

No on Initiative 9.

"A common "stock market" transaction is a "short sale" where, for example, an investor who believes a publicly traded stock is over-priced will borrow that stock from an owner, sell the borrowed stock, and repurchase the stock later at a lower price to repay the loan, thereby making money if the price has fallen. If the price goes up, the investor must repurchase the stock at the higher price to repay the loan, and will lose money. Measure 9 would prohibit short sales.

Todd Epp likes this one, if I recall correctly. See the comment on fairies above. Short selling puts money behind information. If a lot of people are short selling a stock, that tells you that there may be something wrong with that business. More information is good, and information purchased with real money is more often than not good information.

No on Initiative 10, which would restrict lobbying by "governmental lobbies." This looks like a solution in search of a problem. I am voting no.

Yes on Initiative 11. All human beings are created equal: male and female, black and white, born and not yet born. Not that it will make any difference. The courts will strike it down if it passes.

I don't care on Amendment I, which would extend the legislative session.

Yes on Amendment J, which would repeal term limits. I emphatically agree with my esteemed Keloland comrade, Cory:

We've got term limits: they're called elections. If you like your legislator, keep her (or him). If your legislator is a meathead, you get a chance to oust her every two years. Again, as a choice guy, I'm all about this one. Don't just vote yes—vote Heck Yes! on Amendment J.

How Lost Can You Get? Ask the People in Li-Jien

When I travel about God's country, I carry a South Dakota Gazetteer and a compass, in case I get lost. I also carry a Rand McNally Road Atlas, in case I get really lost. Now I am wondering if I shouldn't take a World Atlas, or maybe even a star guide.

In 53 B.C., or B.C.E. if you're sensitive, seven Roman legions with 45,000 men were routed near Carrhae on the eastern border of what is now Turkey. It is quite a story all on its own. Twenty thousand Roman soldiers were slain by the much smaller Parthian army. Ten thousand were said to have been taken prisoner. The rest apparently made it back to Rome.

But seventeen years later Han Dynasty forces in China captured a city defended by a very unfamiliar army. The soldiers wore metal plate armor and fought in "fish-scale formation." They had very unusual physical characteristics: blue eyes and the occasional blond head. The Chinese were so impressed by the soldiers that they moved them to a new location and gave them the task of defending against Tibetan raiders. The new city was called Li-Jien, which is pronounced "legion."

Now all this may be mere goofiness, and that would be my guess. But if it's true, can you imagine how this went down? A Roman commander trying to find his way back to Cisalpine Gaul gets a little confused. "Let's have another look at that map. The sun sets in the east, right?" Ten, fifteen years later, a bunch of Italians are munching down on Chinese food and probably thinking that their new wives look vaguely Jewish. These guys got really lost.

Well, my prediction is this. Seventeen years after this Tuesday's election, a band of Republicans will turn up in, I don't know, Kuala Lumpur. Two thousand years from now, somebody will be trying to connect the dots.