Your election Shaman is predicting that the Democrats will gain seven U.S. Senate seats. Frankly, this puts rather meager demands on my psychic powers, as the polls are reasonably clear in a lot of cases.
The Republicans will lose a seat in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon. The GOP richly deserves to lose in Alaska. Ted Stevens should have pulled out a long time ago. His conviction makes very unlikely that he will hold onto the seat even if he wins the election. I think a Democratic controlled Senate will vote to expel him, and that a lot of Republicans would join in the vote. But I don't think he will win. I hate to say it, but Elizabeth Dole probably deserves to lose in North Carolina. She isn't far behind, but she ran a vicious and deceitful ad against her opponent, and I am guessing it did her the harm she deserves. On the other hand, John Sununu deserves to win in New Hampshire. He is a very smart Republican, the kind of man the party needs in the Senate. But he is going down.
I think Norm Coleman will beat Al Franken in Minnesota (there is a God!), and I expect that Saxby Chambliss will hold on in Georgia, and Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. In a less terrible year for Republicans, all three seats would be safe.
That will leave the Senate balance 58 Democrats to 42 Republicans. The Democrats will not have the coveted filibuster-proof 60 votes, but that doesn't mean that the Republicans will find it easy to filibuster. Susan Collins will win, and with Olympia Snow the Republicans will continue to control Maine's Senate delegation. But both Senators are liberal for Republicans, and will not join their caucus in a filibuster on any conservative issue.
Stuart Taylor Jr. asks the interesting question: Which Obama will America get, the ultra-liberal ideologue (Obama over his entire previous career) or the pragmatic reformer (Obama since he began running for President)? Taylor thinks the former will result in failure (one hopes), but the latter can be a great President. Of course the latter would have to say no to his most fervent interest groups, something he has never done in the past. Don't hold your breath. Either way, he will have a lot of power in both houses of Congress.
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