A lot of eligible Americans do not vote. This is one of those facts that is perceived to be a great problem, not because it can be correlated with any bad consequences, but because it doesn't fit with how we think people ought to behave. Early voting is one of those solutions that is favored not because there is any reason to think it will remedy the problem, but because we think we ought to be doing something about the problem.
According to a Gallup study, about 70% of those who say they will vote plan to vote on Election Day. Of the rest, 11% have already voted, and 19% plan to vote early. That means that 30% of the actual voters (if everyone does what they plan to do) will cast their ballots before the election campaign is over.
Interestingly, and ominously for John McCain, each candidates' supporters are about equally likely to vote early as on Election Day. In the past, early voting has favored Republicans. But Obama supporters outnumber McCain supporters, so Obama is already leading in the vote tally. Gallup points out something interesting about this:
Obama has been ahead in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted while these data were being gathered. Thus, while equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter, meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample. Thus, if McCain gains rapidly in the days left, Obama benefits, since Obama can't lose votes he has already received. If McCain loses support rapidly, Obama will not have the chance to pick up even more support from those who have already voted.
In a courtroom, with exactly twelve voters, a great deal of care is taken to make sure that all the parties, defense and prosecution, judge and jury, have access to exactly the same information. Early voting invites a significant number of voters to act without having all the information that most voters have. A lot can happen between now and November 4th. While big surprises might seem unlikely, we might find out something we really need to know about the two candidates. Otherwise, why go on for the next week and a half?
Voting is a civil right, but it should also be a responsibility. Absentee voting makes perfect sense, as many responsible voters might not be able to reach their allotted polling place. But we have are encouraging a lot of voters to think that they needn't bother. This is the culture that maximizes rights while reducing responsibilities to the merest shadow. It has the potential for altering the outcome of elections, and in future races both parties will try to manipulate it. It does not represent progress.
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