Like my friend Cory Heidelberger, I am little bit embarrassed by the number of posts I have devoted to John McCain's running mate. After all, the conventional wisdom in political science is that running mates don't really matter. People vote for the top of the ticket.
But I think that neither of us should be embarrassed. Who knows what the race will be about two weeks from now, but we live in the now and now is all about Governor Palin. Palin may yet turn out to be a liability for McCain, as Professor Schaff and I suggested in our first posts on the choice (though he much more strongly than I). But there is no doubt that it shook the race up and reshuffled it into a deck much more favorable to the Republican. Why is that?
I note five major reasons, though one could think of more. First, Palin dramatically brought the conservative base back on board. This was always a problem for McCain. Prior to the Palin choice, he was in danger from two fronts: conservatives who didn't think he was one of them, and Obama, who was trying to tie him to Bush. Palin brings back the right with no ties to Bush at all. Of course, social conservatives, and especially the religious right, were never going to vote for Obama. But they might have stayed home, and they were holding on to their wallets. All that has changed. The Republican base is head over heals in love with her, and the money is flowing again.
Second, Palin is clearly attracting women to the ticket. This is especially true of Republican women, who can easily imagine being Sarah Palin. But it looks like it is true of independent women as well, and especially of White women. That's a big chunk of voters.
Third, Palin neutralizes McCain's biggest vulnerability: his age. What if he dies or becomes incapacitated? Well, voters who are not ideologically committed to the Democratic Party are comfortable, if not delighted with Palin. Smart or not, they seem to think that the White House will be in good hands if she has to take over.
Fourth, her addition restores McCain's "outsider" appeal. Maybe that's nonsense (and it is), but no more so than Obama's claim to be a "bridge builder." McCain is surely an insider, but he is also surely an independent minded Republican. That's why he had so much trouble with a lot of Republicans. Palin put wind back into those sails.
Finally, I have to admit that I was wrong and one of our readers was right about "the experience thing." Anne wrote this, in response to my first post on Gov. Palin:
I disagree with you and Prof Blanchard about the nomination of Sarah Palin neutralizing the experience issue. I think it emphasizes it. It has the Democrats furiously insisting that Sen Obama is so too more experienced than Governor Palin. Well, that has them comparing the top of their ticket to the bottom of the Republicans'. Eventually people will recall that Sen McCain exceeds them all in both experience and judgment.
Anne hit that nail right on the head. Every time Obama or someone else questions Palin's qualifications for office, it immediately invites comparisons with Obama himself. A state legislator who began to run for president as soon as he was elected to the Senate has no qualifications that trump Palin's. Rather, she comes out slightly ahead, having had at least two jobs as an executive officer.
More important, it pulls Obama down when he is compared to Palin, who is, after all, only the running mate. That leaves McCain above the fray! And it pushes Biden down below consideration.
McCain's choice of Governor Palin has been frequently called a "Hail Mary Pass." When someone throws a Hail Mary, and it is received in the end zone, one can never know whether it was genius, or dumb luck, or maybe the Mother of Jesus was intervening. But the quarterback doesn't really have to care.
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