From USAToday:
The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.
Now that looks like an 11 point bounce. But it is not quite the most significant news.
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
"Likely voters" is obviously a more important category than "registered voters." I wouldn't put much weight on this poll, unless it is confirmed by others. But if it's real, 10 points is a dramatic shift in McCain's favor. And there has clearly been movement toward the Republican side. The Gallop tracking poll has McCain up three, and Rasmussen has it tied. The RCP average now gives McCain a slight advantage for the first time.
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