It's Palin

You heard it here first.  McCain will live to regret this decision. 

I have long agreed with the conventional wisdom that this was Obama's race to lose.  McCain needed to draw lucky on an inside straight in order to win this race.  But it was looking for a while like the cards were coming his way.  Obama was too arrogant.  With the Russian invasion of Georgia foreign policy suddenly became key.  The McCain camp was effective in painting Obama as out of touch and unprepared.  Obama's stumbling on abortion and Bill Ayers wasn't helping. 

I did not see Obama's speech last night, but I have read it and read much of the commentary.  I think he made a smart move, albeit a cynical one.  "We are the one's we've been waiting for," "The One," and all the high minded talk about change and new politics is gone.  If last night is any indication Obama will run as your garden variety partisan Democrat, engaging in the interest group liberalism that has been the standard Democratic tactic since Lyndon Johnson.  Given the fact that Democrats are far more popular than Republicans, this should work (and is why Hillary Clinton would have made a much better candidate). 

Palin has the inexperience of Obama without some of his baggage, for example she is actually a sincere reformer as opposed to a phony one like Obama.  McCain has been arguing that Obama is not "ready to lead."  Well, is McCain's own Vice-Presidential pick?  On paper, she is not. 

This decision coupled with Obama's smartly cynical manuevering may have settled this election.  In the last 24 hours Obama won the race while McCain gave it away. 

Note to readers.  Given my lack of success in predicting elections, don't get too excited about my skills at the old crystal ball.