Everything that political scientists use to game an election tells me that McCain should lose, and that he should be way behind already. The economy is a problem. OK, it's not really all that bad, by historical standards. Unemployment isn't that high, the mortgage crisis hasn't really hurt that many voters. Gas prices look high, but in constant dollars they have been worse before. But clearly the voters are spooked, as well they should be. The Republican brand name is worth elephant turds, and Barack Obama doth bestride the narrow world like a colossus, attracting more people than Abba would to his recent speech. Meanwhile the American press doesn't seem to know or care that McCain is in the race.
So why is Obama only marginally ahead of McCain in most polls, nationally? And why is McCain ahead in Colorado and Ohio, in some polls? Voters seem to like both Obama and McCain, but they have misgivings about both. Obama's flip-flopping has brought him down to earth, and his trip to Europe may not reap the returns he hoped for. Do we really want a rock star as President? Obama's problem now is that many voters will see anything he says or does from this point forward as mere politics. And that leaves them wondering how they can know who this guy really is. I am not at all sure that McCain can capitalize on that, but he is still in the game. Beyond that, I don't know what is going on.
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