Over the last couple of days, I have spent a lot of time on the phone with various reporters discussing the impending visits of the two wings of the Democratic Party. Clinton will visit Aberdeen on Thursday. Obama, I gather, will appear somewhere in the "Watertown area," Friday morning, and in Sioux Falls Friday night. What does this say about the strategies of each campaign?
The last poll taken in South Dakota showed Obama 10 points ahead of Senator Clinton. But those results were announced back in April, and a lot of muddy water has gone down the Big Jim River since then. If I had to guess, I would guess that Obama figures to lose South Dakota. He is showing up to show that he isn't just writing off the rural states. If I were him, I would skip the Watertown trip, and instead visit Cabelas in Mitchell. A few photos of him buying a pair of hip waders, and sipping coffee with the locals would be just the thing. It is the Cabelas demographic he is having trouble with.
Senator Clinton, by contrast, wants to win South Dakota, and by a lot. She just flattened Senator Obama in West Virgina by 41 points. Forty one points. Two hundred and twenty-four thousand to eighty-six thousand, rounded off, is the kind of defeat only Dennis Kucinich could be proud of. Clinton would like to repeat that sort of victory in our state, or as near to it as she can get. What is she playing for?
There are three logically possible goals for Ms. Clinton to shoot at. One is the Democrats will panic at the poor showing of Obama in these states, and the super delegates will abandon his ship and anoint her. That hope is all but gone. It is very hard to imagine that the Democrats will take the nomination away from the first Black candidate who won it fair and square. A second goal is the Veep Stakes. She may want on the ticket. Having half the Democratic electorate behind her, and everyone with a couple Cabelas catalogs laying around the living room, gives her a good claim; but there is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is not in the cards.
Lastly, she may have her eyes on 2012. If Obama loses in November, she can say: "you should'a nominated me!" She will be well-positioned to get the nomination next time, with the only disadvantage that she has plenty of time to blow it.
In the meantime, South Dakota gets a little attention. As it happens, I will be visiting Tennessee Williams this week, so Mondak will have to tell me how it went.
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