A lot of attention has been paid to Barack Obama's weakness among White males and especially rural voters. The Washington Times notes another group of voters among whom Obama might be in trouble.
The latest Gallup polls show that in a contest with Mr. McCain, Mr. Obama would secure 61 percent of the Jewish vote to the Republican's 32 percent. In 2004 and 2006 elections, by contrast, Jewish voters favored the Democratic Party by a 75 percent to 25 percent margin. This suggests that support for the Democratic Party standard-bearer among Jews could be approaching its lowest levels in decades. The Republicans' best showing was achieved by Ronald Reagan in 1980, when he won 40 percent of the Jewish vote.
How much does that matter?
Jews comprise just 2 percent of the American population. But they could play a large role in a close election because they are geographically concentrated and are more likely than other groups to turn out to vote. States with large Jewish populations — such as California, New York, Florida and New Jersey — account for 128 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio also have large numbers of Jewish voters. Consider two states: Florida, a critical swing state, has 400,000 Jewish voters and Pennsylvania 200,000. In these states, a shift among Jews from one party to the other can determine the overall final result.
American Jews have been loyal Democrats for a number of reasons, including liberal policy inclinations and recently a concern for conservative Protestant influence in the Republican Party. But we live in interesting times. Today right wing Evangelicals are strong supporters of Israel. The American left, like the European left, see Israel as a "rogue state". And then there are African Americans, who might be the most antisemitic of America's racial/ethnic groups.
Barack Obama has two problems. The first is that many of his policy advisers have been typical anti-Israel leftists. This created an opening for John McCain:
On Friday, Robert Malley, an Obama advisor, resigned from the senator's campaign as reports surfaced that he had met with the terrorist group Hamas. Last month, Hamas political advisor Ahmad Yousef said on WABC Radio in New York that he hoped Mr. Obama would be elected president. Mr. McCain said Hamas would never want him to be president, "so if Mr. Obama is favored by Hamas, I think people can make judgments accordingly."
The second, of course, is the fallout from the Wright affair. Reverend Wright found it necessary to defend his support of Louis Farrakhan by comparing it to Nelson Mandela's loyalty to Castro! That is a lot of baggage to be carrying, as Obama courts voters in Florida.
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