Dave Barry once wrote that the population of South Dakota is so small, anyone entering it automatically becomes a member of the State Legislature. At present, Senator Hillary Clinton is acquiring seniority.
Jonathan Ellis reports in the Argus Leader that Senator Clinton will visit Brandon and Brookings tomorrow, and the Pine Ridge Reservation next week. That last part is interesting. The Clintons have cultivated good relationships with many minority groups. They once had a lot of loyalty among African Americans, but that's long gone. I am guessing that there is some residual loyalty among Native Americans, and that Senator Clinton will carry that demographic.
If so, she stands a reasonable chance of winning the state. There aren't any recent polls, or at least not any public ones. The campaigns surely have their internal polls. South Dakota is not easy to predict at this moment. The state is hip-deep in hip-wader Democrats, just the kind of people that gave Ms. Clinton her gargantuan victories in West Virginia and Kentucky.
On the other hand, lava-lamp liberals and over-educated professional types like Todd Epp make up a disproportionately large slice of the Democratic pie due to our small population. They may yet help Obama prevent a defeat or at least a massive defeat.
I wouldn't bet a dollar of my own money on June 3rd. But if someone gave me a wad of cash to put down, I would put it on a Clinton victory. I would also bet that Ms. Clinton is headed to the Convention floor. Even if the delegate count goes over the magic number for Obama, she wants to make the case that she should be the nominee. The Clinton campaign is not something that occurred to Bill and Hillary last year. It is something they have been forging (think of Sauron at Mount Doom) since the first months of Bill's presidency. Ms. Clinton wants to make the case that she is the one who could win in November. Then she just has to hope that Obama loses.
A win in South Dakota will be an upset in her favor, if due only to a very outdated poll. A big win is what she is playing for. Short of a catastrophic McCain collapse (which is surely possible), neither Democrat will carry South Dakota this November. The 2012 presidential election has already begun.
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