Do campaigns really matter? Maybe, maybe not. Walter Shapiro makes the negative case at Salon:
Demographics may be destiny in the Democratic presidential race -- and almost nothing else matters. Despite the overwrought controversies swirling around visits to Bosnia and bitter blue-collar voters, despite one of the most plug-ugly debates in recent history, despite a late-breaking onslaught of negative ads, virtually every subcategory of the Democratic electorate performed in expected fashion. Clinton built her victory around women (57 percent in the exit polls), voters over 40 (her percentage rises in near lockstep fashion based on age), Pennsylvanians without a college degree (58 percent) and white Catholics (71 percent). Once again, Obama's strength was among black voters (89 percent), the affluent (handily winning among families earning over $150,000 a year) and voters under 30 (61 percent).
Jay Cost backs Shapiro up at Real Clear Politics. He shows that the demographics of Clinton's Pennsylvania victory mirror her Ohio victory. This suggests that, aside from a few weird places like Wisconsin, you could just about predict the outcome of any Democratic primary if the only thing you knew was how much of each demographic group would come to the polls.
John Judis continues to see ominous signs in these demographics.
If you look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State's Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia. Its ideology is very liberal.
Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as "very liberal." In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among "very liberal" voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost "somewhat conservative" voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent [my emphasis].
A lot of Democrats are beginning to wonder if Obama can possibly carry Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida. And without any of those, how does he win?
But it is Maureen Dowd who pours a lot of bitter syrup on Obama's waffles.
In the final days in Pennsylvania, he dutifully logged time at diners and force-fed himself waffles, pancakes, sausage and a Philly cheese steak. He split the pancakes with Michelle, left some of the waffle and sausage behind, and gave away the French fries that came with the cheese steak.
But this is clearly a man who can’t wait to get back to his organic scrambled egg whites. That was made plain with his cri de coeur at the Glider Diner in Scranton when a reporter asked him about Jimmy Carter and Hamas.
“Why” he pleaded, sounding a bit, dare we say, bitter, “can’t I just eat my waffle?”
His subtext was obvious: Why can’t I just be president? Why do I have to keep eating these gooey waffles and answering these gotcha questions and debating this gonzo woman?
That's droppin' the Dowd on 'im. But of course, she's right. Obama has lived a sheltered life. Nothing in his past has prepared him for the sausage and waffles at the local diner. He doesn't get these people and they don't get him.
ps. Obama's half-eaten waffle is apparently selling for $7,000 on eBay. His campaign should buy it just to get it off the market.
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