We keep hearing over and over that Ms. Clinton can't win the nomination. I did a little spread sheet math to get a clearer idea of what the situation is. I am relying on data from different media sources, and there are a
lot of discrepancies in the reported numbers. For example, CNN reports
the total number of delegates as 4,048 and 4322 in different places. My count adds up to 4,200 total delegates, but I expect the numbers are close. Here is one number that is reliable:
Total needed for nomination: 2,024
Not counting Pennsylvania, here is the current count of "pledged delegates" for both candidates. These are the delegates won in primaries and caucuses.
Clinton 1250
Obama 1416
Add to this the number of "superdelegates" who have declared their allegiance. These numbers are gathered by the press, and should be subject to considerable doubt. A super delegate is free to change her or his mind at any time.
Clinton 258
Obama 234
Put the totals together, and you get this:
Clinton 1508
Obama 1650
That is where the two candidates appeared to be standing coming into today's contest. Now, I estimate the remaining pledged delegates to be assigned in electoral contests, including tonight's Pennsylvania Primary, Indiana and North Carolina, South Dakota, and others, to be this:
Remaining Pledged Delegates: 739
It seems safe to assume that those 739 votes will be split more or less evenly between the two candidates, with perhaps a small advantage for one or the other. Half of 740 is 370. So what will the final count look like after the South Dakota and Montana Primaries?
Clinton 1878
Obama 2020
That puts Obama four votes short of nomination, and Clinton 146 votes shy. What's left is the remaining super delegates:
Uncommitted Super Delegates: 303.
So where does that leave us? Assuming that the committed Super Delegates remain committed, there is a chance that Obama will win enough delegates in the remaining contests to clinch the nomination. That means that Senator Clinton has to keep fighting all the way to Pierre, if she is to keep hope alive. That is good news for John McCain.
Tonight's contest will shift a few numbers in her direction. That probably means that the remaining Super Delegates will likely decide the issue before the convention. Ms. Clinton will have to convince a substantial majority of the SDs to come over to her side.
That would mean denying the first Black candidate, with a majority of elected delegates and most of the popular vote behind, a nomination that it looks like he earned. The only way that happens is if the Super Delegates become convinced that he can't possibly win.
The Democratic Party has done what it does best: it split right down the middle. In any other year, that would assure a Republican victory. This year all bets are off. But John McCain surely does have a nice gap in which to insert his crow bar.
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