Dick Morris points out in Real Clear Politics that, despite the smashing victories in Ohio and Texas, it is still over for Hillary.
Obama will go to the Democratic Convention with a lead of between 100 and 200 elected delegates. The remaining question is: What will the superdelegates do then? But is that really a question? Will the leaders of the Democratic Party be complicit in its destruction? Will they really kindle a civil war by denying the nomination to the man who won the most elected delegates? No way. They well understand that to do so would be to throw away the party’s chances of victory and to stigmatize it among African-Americans and young people for the rest of their lives. The Democratic Party took 20 years to recover from the traumas of 1968 and it is not about to trigger a similar bloodletting this year.
That is the way it looks to me, too. The only thing that would change that is if Senator Clinton can somehow destroy Senator Obama as a candidate. Johnathan Chait lays that out at the New Republic. But he argues that, even if it works (and I think it would be quite a hat trick), it would destroy Ms. Clinton's chances in November.
Clinton's path to the nomination, then, involves the following steps: kneecap an eloquent, inspiring, reform-minded young leader who happens to be the first serious African American presidential candidate (meanwhile cementing her own reputation for Nixonian ruthlessness) and then win a contested convention by persuading party elites to override the results at the polls. The plan may also involve trying to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations, after having explicitly agreed that the results would not count toward delegate totals. Oh, and her campaign has periodically hinted that some of Obama's elected delegates might break off and support her. I don't think she'd be in a position to defeat Hitler's dog in November, let alone a popular war hero.
Both Morris and Chait agree that Senator Clinton cannot be elected President at this point, and that her remaining in the race is a terrible threat to the Democratic Party. I am sure that, as long as she thinks there is a ghost of a chance of winning, there is nothing to which Ms. Clinton would not stoop to seize the prize. But I also expect that, at some point over the next several weeks, it will become clear even to the Clinton's that their dream is not going to be realized. Then she will concede.
I admit to some feelings of elation at the thought that Clinton and Obama would burn their own party to the ground rather than give in. But while that might very well be good for the ambitions of John McCain, it would be bad for the Republic. Let us hope it does not come to that.
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