The Rapid City Journal now has online the article about whether Tim Johnson will debate his opponent in the fall. The article includes quotes from my favorite political scientist, me.
Jon Schaff, a professor of political science at Northern State University in Aberdeen, said debates are likely to become a major campaign issue for Johnson only if the second-term Senate incumbent has a "credible opponent" and the Senate race is reasonably close. Then, Johnson's speech challenges could loom larger in the minds of voters, Schaff said.
"Sen. Johnson has all the mental faculties he's always had. But he does have problems with his ability to speak. So articulating his thoughts might be an issue," Schaff said. "Obviously, that makes debates a big risk for him. If he has trouble speaking in public, it might raise doubts about his ability to serve, rightly or wrongly."
A challenger would be advised to handle the issue delicately, however, Schaff said.
"Yes, a Republican can score points on this, although the Republican would be a fool to draw direct attention to it," he said. "Let people draw their own conclusions."
As I said in the article, this is an issue any Republican must handle with extreme delicacy. It is certainly questionable how hard Tim Johnson can campaign, but any Republican who indelicately tries to draw attention to Sen. Johnson's infirmities will find that effort backfire on him.
As I have said, this is why I think the Johnson campaign came so hard after Steve Kirby, even to the point of hiring people to trail Kirby's family. Kirby's money virtually guaranteed that he could rise to the level of a credible candidate, which I measure as someone who can get over 40% in the polls. That kind of candidate will make Johnson campaign harder than he wants, and perhaps harder than he can. For the sake of Sen. Johnson's health I hope I am wrong about that, but that is my educated guess as of now.
Johnson must hope that no opponent can reach 40% in the polls. At that point Johnson must debate and must make himself very public on a daily basis. We'll see if any Republican can reach that level and, having risen to those heights, can avoid the blowback from any attempt to draw the least attention to Sen. Johnson's physical infirmities.
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