Democratic Delegates (2,025 needed to win nomination)
| Candidate | Delegates |
|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 1,276 |
| John Edwards | 26 |
| Mike Gravel | 0 |
| Barack Obama | 1,386 |
| Total (5:50 this afternoon) |
2,688 |
Ms. Clinton looks poised to win at two of the three important contests tonight: the Ohio Primary, the Texas Primary, and the Texas Caucus. Exit polls suggest that some of her key support groups have come back to her in these states, including Hispanics. She seems to have convinced a lot of people that she is indeed the more qualified candidate for the job. That's a lot of good news for a candidate that looked dead in the water a week ago.
On the other hand, only big wins in all three contests would give her an appreciable gain toward nomination. As it looks too close to call at this hour, I am guessing that big wins are not in the cards. With South Carolina and Mississippi coming up, it just doesn't look like Ms. Clinton can win enough pledged delegates to put her over the edge.
Now it seem to be the case that, if Clinton wins Texas and Ohio, she will make it impossible for Obama to win the nomination outright, though he will probably come out ahead. That means the super delegates will indeed decide the nomination, and Hillary then has at least a chance to win enough of them over.
But that is going to be a hard case to make. So far, Obama has nearly a million more popular votes than she does, and will probably have a substantial lead in pledged delegates. Will the super delegates really over-ride the process and the popular vote to crown Ms. Clinton? That happens only if there is a massive turn of Democratic opinion nationally away from Obama and toward her. In this year of comebacks, it is hardly impossible. But it is a very tall order.
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