Perhaps this is what the last judgment will look like for Hillary and her Bill: an unstoppable Obama running through a series of caucuses. But let not the angels blow their trumpets yet. This is way too much fun for it to end suddenly.
Obama swept four Democratic contests over the weekend. He won by a healthy 2 to1 in Washington, Nebraska, and Maine, and 57-35% in Louisiana. The first three were caucuses. About 30,000 voters each participated in the Washington and Nebraska events, and about 3,000 participated in Maine. Obama's lopsided victories tell us two things we already knew: that Ms. Clinton has fallen badly out of favor with the activist core of her own party, and that Mr. Obama is energizing that same core. On the other hand, it is unclear how representative these small samples are of the Democratic electorate in each state, let alone the electorate as a whole. Close to three hundred thousand voters participated in Louisiana, where the Black vote was more potent and Obama's margin more narrow.
Thus the weekend's selection leaves questions about Obama's real strength nationally. To see that, consider that Mike Huckabee has similar advantages in Southern caucuses. The Huck won by a lot in the Kansas Republican caucus, and very narrowly (43-42%) in Louisiana. McCain narrowly edged out Huckabee in the Washington caucus. Huckabee's strength is a concern for McCain, but it is unlikely to deny him the nomination. Obama is a much greater threat to Clinton, but we will soon be able to read the situation a lot better. Between now and March 4th, there will be eight primaries and one caucus. If Obama sweeps that group, or wins three out of four, he will be the nominee. If Ms. Clinton does well, she is back on track.
It is clear that the Clinton campaign has gone back into panic mode. She is announcing the traditional shake-up, and has a new manager. She thinks she is in big trouble. From the Washington Post:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton shook up her presidential campaign yesterday, replacing campaign manager and longtime aide Patti Solis Doyle with Maggie Williams, her former White House chief of staff, in an acknowledgment of the unexpectedly difficult struggle in which she finds herself against Sen. Barack Obama.
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