The Ides of Michigan

This just in, from correspondent Casca:

Are not you moved, when all the sway of earth
Shakes like a thing unfirm? O Cicero,
I have seen tempests, when the scolding winds
Have rived the knotty oaks, and I have seen
The ambitious ocean swell and rage and foam,
To be exalted with the threatening clouds:
But never till to-night, never till now,
Did I go through a tempest dropping fire.
Either there is a civil strife in heaven,
Or else the world, too saucy with the gods,
Incenses them to send destruction.

The State of Michigan was so saucy with the gods, it held its primary before the pious time.  As result Ms. Clinton was running only against Dennis Kucinich, which is to say, unopposed.  Nonetheless, she received a mere 55% of the vote.   A full 40% were cast for "uncommitted". Never till tonight, never till now, did I see 236,234 voters go to the polls, in a primary election that doesn't count, to vote resolutely for nobody.  Or more accurately, for somebody, if not anybody else.  This is the sort of victory that Ms. C. can ill-afford. 

And then there is the Republican Primary, brought to us by correspondent Calpurnia: 

A lioness hath whelped in the streets;
And graves have yawn'd, and yielded up their dead;
Fierce fiery warriors fought upon the clouds,
In ranks and squadrons and right form of war,
Which drizzled blood upon the Capitol;
The noise of battle hurtled in the air,
Horses did neigh, and dying men did groan,
And ghosts did shriek and squeal about the streets.
 

Mitt Romney, that Mormon Cicero, finally has his triumph.  He won with 39% of the vote, against John McCain's 30%.   And so did the graves yawn and the candidacy of Romney was yielded up from the dead.  Pundits will neigh and Fred Thompson groan.  Mike Huckabee, a distant third, will continue looking to the Southern provinces. 

Let us apply some judgment.  The Democratic electorate is divided against itself.  Ms. Clinton got the lion's share of White men and the lioness's share of White women (54% & 71%).  "Uncommitted" received 54% of the non-White men and 64% of the non-White women.  This is no doubt a consequence of the race question that is now drizzling blood on the Democrats.  Professor Schaff and I have commented on it.

The Republicans, by contrast, are divided among three candidates.  While McCain won among voters who never go to church, Huckabee lost to Romney among those who show up every Sunday.  The Michigan results leave us with three viable candidates. 

I think this means that the Democrats are in better shape.  There is more passion there, and sooner or later they will decide on one candidate.  But there is an obvious caveat.  If Ms. Clinton turns out to be the nominee, and that is hard to call right now, she may well alienate large portions of the electorate, including Black voters.  The Republicans right now look headed toward a brokered convention, where the winner will be "whatever."  Unless one of the three can start energizing the base, the Republicans win only if the Democrats implode.