Next Tuesday, we'll be heading into the Republicans' first closed primary in Florida, where we'll see if McCain can hold his advantage over Republican-only voters, whether Romney can win in a state not predisposed to support him, and whether Giulani's strategy will work. The Washington Post reports:
Riding the momentum from his weekend victory in South Carolina, John McCain turned his attention Sunday to Florida and the high-stakes primary there that will test whether the Arizona senator can consolidate support among Republican voters and take control of the GOP nomination battle.
The Jan. 29 contest in Florida will be the first Republican primary closed to independent voters, who have provided McCain with his margins of victory in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. A victory, strategists agreed, would stamp McCain as the front-runner in what has been a muddied Republican race and give him a clear advantage heading toward Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.
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Florida has played a pivotal role in the past two general elections and now is poised to help determine who the Republicans will send into the main event this November. The primary looms as a potential showdown in the GOP nomination battle not only because of its size and importance but because it will be the first this year in which all the leading candidates are competing.
Giulani has kept a low profile in the race so far but, according to the Real Clear Politics polls, he remains in the middle of the fight in Florida. McCain carries five of the six polls listed by RCP, but Giuliani remains within the margin of error. Given Florida's closed primary status where only Republicans can vote, the state will help provide an indication for Republicans going into Super Tuesday. I would suspect that if McCain wins, the race will come down to Romney and McCain. If Rudy wins, the delegate hunt continues and the possibility of a brokered convention becomes a greater possibility.
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