Once again Powerline is on the beat. The Old Lady of American journalism celebrates Iraq and Afghanistan soldiers in its own way: not with a yellow ribbon but with yellowed journalism. It has run a story about a crime wave committed by returning veterans, by Deborah Sontag and Lizette Alvarez.
Town by town across the country, headlines have been telling similar
stories. Lakewood, Wash.: “Family Blames Iraq After Son Kills Wife.”
Pierre, S.D.: “Soldier Charged With Murder Testifies About Postwar
Stress.” Colorado Springs: “Iraq War Vets Suspected in Two Slayings,
Crime Ring.”
Individually, these are stories of local crimes, gut-wrenching
postscripts to the war for the military men, their victims and their
communities. Taken together, they paint the patchwork picture of a
quiet phenomenon, tracing a cross-country trail of death and heartbreak.
The New York Times found 121 cases in which veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan
committed a killing in this country, or were charged with one, after
their return from war. In many of those cases, combat trauma and the
stress of deployment — along with alcohol abuse, family discord and
other attendant problems — appear to have set the stage for a tragedy
that was part destruction, part self-destruction.
Now the above paints a pretty sad picture. But on its own, it doesn't tell us anything. Is this a high or a low murder rate for this carefully defined population? One hundred twenty one murders would represent about one third of the murders in Detroit, Michigan, in 2003. And how did the the authors arrive at these numbers?
The Pentagon does not keep track of such killings, most of which are
prosecuted not by the military justice system but by civilian courts in
state after state. Neither does the Justice Department.
To compile and analyze its list, The Times conducted a search of
local news reports, examined police, court and military records and
interviewed the defendants, their lawyers and families, the victims’
families and military and law enforcement officials.
This reporting most likely uncovered only the minimum number of such
cases, given that not all killings, especially in big cities and on
military bases, are reported publicly or in detail. Also, it was often
not possible to determine the deployment history of other service
members arrested on homicide charges.
The Times used the same methods to research homicides involving all
active-duty military personnel and new veterans for the six years
before and after the present wartime period began with the invasion of
Afghanistan in 2001.
This showed an 89 percent increase during the present wartime
period, to 349 cases from 184, about three-quarters of which involved
Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans. The increase occurred even though
there have been fewer troops stationed in the United States in the last
six years and the American homicide rate has been, on average, lower.
So the only comparison Sontag and Alvarez can make is between murders by military personnel before and during the "present war-time period." And while they admit that neither number is reliable, they draw the conclusion that the real numbers must be higher and therefore that their case is really stronger than it looks. Proof by optimistic supposition.
Powerline points out that, if you are going to introduce such numbers, you might at least compare them to data that is reliable.
I'm pretty sure your first question will be: "How does the murder
rate among veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan compare to the murder rate
for young American men generally?" Remarkably, this is a question the
New York Times did not think to ask. Or, if the Times asked the
question and figured out the answer, the paper preferred not to report
it.
As of 2005, the homicide rate
for Americans aged 18-24, the cohort into which most soldiers fall, was
around 27 per 100,000. (The rate for men in that age range would be
much higher, of course, since men commit around 88% of homicides. But
since most soldiers are also men, I gave civilians the benefit of the
doubt and considered gender a wash.)
Next we need to know how many servicemen have returned from Iraq or
Afghanistan. A definitive number is no doubt available, but the only
hard figure I've seen is that as of last October, moe than 500,000
U.S. Army personnel had served in either Iraq or Afghanistan. Other
sources peg the total number of personnel from all branches of the
military who have served in the two theaters much higher, e.g. 750,000, 650,000 as of February 2007, or 1,280,000.
For the sake of argument, let's say that 700,000 soldiers, Marines,
airmen and sailors have returned to the U.S. from service in Iraq or
Afghanistan.
Do the math: the 121 alleged instances of homicide identified by the
Times, out of a population of 700,000, works out to a rate of 17 per
100,000--quite a bit lower than the overall national rate of around 27.
But wait! The national rate of 27 homicides per 100,000 is an annual
rate, whereas the Times' 121 alleged crimes were committed over a
period of six years. Which means that, as far as the Times' research
shows, the rate of homicides committed by military personnel who have
returned from Iraq or Afghanistan is only a fraction of the homicide
rate for other Americans aged 18 to 24. Somehow, the Times managed to
publish nine pages of anecdotes about the violence wreaked by returning
servicemen without ever mentioning this salient fact [my italics].
The real murder rate for returning Iraq and Afghanistan veterans would be difficult to determine, as Sontag and Alvarez admit. But it is almost certainly much lower than the rate for their cohort (males, 18-24) as a whole. This is a more effective argument for a universal draft than it is for the horrors of war.
All the Times really has is this: the murder rate appears to have gone up among military personnel since the invasion of Afghanistan. This might have been prevented by better mental health screening, though the article can present no reliable estimates of how many servicemen get should screening or whether it is adequate. Nor do we know how much good, if any, such screening does.
But even the claim of increase is highly suspect. The authors acknowledge that they rely heavily on local news reports that identify the perpetrator of a crime as a serviceman. James Tarranto of the Wall Street Journal points out the obvious flaw in that.
What the Times has discovered, then, is a dramatic increase in the number of news reports
in which homicide defendants are identified as servicemen or recent
veterans. Does this mean that those who've served their country are
more crime-prone now than they were in peacetime? Or does it mean that
reporters are more prone to perpetuate the wacko-vet myth than they
were during peacetime?
The Times article is very shoddy journalism. It contributes to the myth of the crazed veteran, which is no service to our men and woman at arms. Only a little extra effort would have made it a much more responsible piece, but at the cost of its obviously intended political effect.
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