The net is buzzing about a list presented by Karl Rove of the top twenty vulnerable House Republicans and the top twenty "targeted" Democrats (see TPMCafe). Stephanie Herseth is apparently number 20 on the list.
My first inclination is to say that if Herseth is on it, Rove must be having a terrible time coming up with a plausible list. If Herseth runs for re-election, I just can't see anyone beating her. But that "if" is intriguing. Why might she not run? I have been hearing rumors (second hand, mind you) that she really wants to run for Governor. That office is a hard nut to crack for Democrats, but if they want to build the party in state it's vital to not always concede it to the Republicans. According to Rumor, Herseth wants to be back home, her father along with a lot of in state Democrats want her to replace Rounds.
An alternative reason that Herseth might not run is that she is running for Senate. I have been saying for some time that I do not believe Tim Johnson will run for office again. I have no knowledge of his condition at all, but I have met him, respect him, and I do not believe that he is crazy. Only a crazy person, having had his brush with disaster, would want to go back to the Senate. I also think that the fact that he is being kept so completely under wraps supports the view that his health would not support a run at the present moment. The Democrats are shrewdly insisting that he will run because it heads off strong fund raising on the Republican's part. That won't last forever.
So I think that there will be an open U.S. Senate seat in South Dakota in 08. The Republicans may be targeting Herseth's seat because they are pretty sure she won't be sitting in it come November of next year. If there is a Senate race, the likely Republican to square off against Herseth would of course be Governor Rounds. I think he wins, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
If Herseth does have to choose between running for Senate or Governor, I expect she will end up doing the former. Whatever personal or familial pressures there will be to run for state office, the Democratic National Party will surely bring all its weight to bear to keep that Senate seat. Besides, the State House is probably the one seat that Herseth stands the best chance of losing. If she did run and come up short, the Republicans might well get the U.S. Senate and House Seats, and keep the state house. That would be a disaster for the SD Democratic party. I would put my money on a Senate run. But either way, South Dakota is going to be an every more interesting place than usual.
On the chances of such a race, see The New York Times and our neighbor in the local blogosphere, South Dakota War College. I think I actually scooped Pat Powers. Here is the NYT's take:
While neither Johnson nor a surrogate has officially declared that
the senator will seek re-election, he is expected to do so if his
health continues to improve. “It’s not a firm decision, but he
was very enthusiastic about running before all this happened,” Johnson
spokeswoman Julianne Fisher told CQPolitics.com.
Also see Jason's Post below.
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