I began commenting on Mike Huckabee's campaign back in January, when I was pretty much the only one besides his dog who noticed that he was getting ready to run. I would like to tell you that I saw all this coming. But in fact I described his campaign as "amusing." Well, just right now it ain't funny anymore. The Man From Hope II has a solid lead in Iowa (10 points in the RCP spread), and has taken on Reagan's old political wizard, Ed Rollins to manage his suddenly serious campaign. So is Huckabee really the coming thing?
I still have my doubts. Huckabee is not leading in any of the other important state polls that I have seen. He is still in fourth place in New Hampshire, which he would like to win in order to keep his momentum going. He is competitive in South Carolina, where the GOP field is pretty evenly split, but he is still in fourth place. He is running third in Florida (which will have only a diminished role in the Convention), but Giuliani still has a commanding lead there.
In many respects, Huckabee's surge reminds one of Howard Dean, without the hysterics. He is in better shape at this point than Dean was in 2004. Dean's flag was already drooping as the caucus neared, where Huckabee is just now rising. Huckabee seems to be riding the Christian right as Dean rode the anti-war left, but that raises the same questions about Huck's ability to appeal to a wider range of voters next November.
But Huckabee's heavy investment in his former role as a Baptist preacher is not, I think, his greatest weakness. Nor is it his ignorance of foreign policy, exactly. It is his remarkable disinterest in foreign policy. Whatever he is reading to bone up for the debates, it isn't world news. Moreover, he seems to have Carter-like inclinations on foreign policy. He seems to think that he can solve the problem of Iran by engaging in dialog with some kind of sincerity that is lacking in the current administration. On the other hand, he is all for sending troops into Pakistan to chase the Taliban. So his idea of foreign policy
is to be nicer to hostile regimes, and invade those who are our close allies. I don't think that is ignorance. It's lack of attention. And if he really does believe in the power of sincerity, he is clearly not fit for the Oval Office.
I doubt that we will be talking about Mike Huckabee after the first few contests. If we are, it will be bad sign for the Republicans. I don't think that Huckabee can unify the GOP. He might do what the left has longed for: split the evangelicals from the Republican party in the way that Jesse Jackson once split the Democrat party along racial lines in the primaries. But I don't expect that. The Christian right has a history of pragmatism. They backed Kay Bailey Hutchinson for the Texas Senate seat, even though she was pro-choice. I expect that they will be more interested in defeating Clinton or Obama than in making sure that the Republican nominee has been born more than once.
ps. Has anyone else noticed that Campbell's Sea Salt Chef in their recent commercials looks astounding like Mike Huckabee? This was the best image I could find. 
Watch one of these commercials. It's the Huck, alright! Once again I have the eerie feeling that God is talking to me. And as usual, I have no idea what He is getting at.
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