A new McClatchy-MSNBC poll shows a statistical dead head in Iowa in the Democratic presidential race and a shift in the Republican race. John Edwars leads with 24%, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 23%. Since the last poll in early December, Edwards gained three points while Clinton lost four points and Obama lost 3 points.
Mitt Romney has regained the lead over Mike Huckabee, who has "lost momentum and support, even among evangelical Christians who had propelled him into the top spot just weeks ago." Romney leads with 27%, followed by Huckabee at 23%, Fred Thompson at 14%, and Sen. John McCain at 13%. Huckabee has fallen eight points since earlier this month, while Romney has risen seven points.
Several other polls suggests that the race in Iowa remains a toss-up. In a different poll with a larger sample, a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll says the race remains tight for both Democrats and Republicans. There's a three-way statistical tie between Sen. Clinton (30.7%), Sen. Obama (26.8%), and Edwards (24.2%). Among Republicans, there's also a tie for first place. Huckabee leads with 27.7%, followed by Romney at 26.6%, McCain at 10.9%, Thompson at 7.8%, and Giuliani at 7.3%. Robert Novak reports on a massive polling effort that surveyed 15,000 pledged attendees of the Iowa caucuses. The poll suggests that Huckabee (26%) is slipping to Romney (30%). McCain comes in third with twelve percent, and Giuliani fourth with nine percent. Thompson had only one percent, slightly less than Ron Paul's one percent. When asked about their second choice candidate, Iowans chose McCain for both Huckabee and Romney voters.
Together, I think this suggests that McCain is becoming a greater factor than pundits originally thought. Although he's running in the middle of these polls, that's far better than what he was polling a few months ago. It's also significant that McCain is the second-choice candidate. I would submit that if he can pitch against either Huckabee or Romney he might leave Iowa with a lot of momentum, which threatens Romney in New Hampshire. The polls also suggest that the Huckasurge is dwindling among Iowa caucus-goers, which is giving Romney a slight advantage -- but he still needs to tread carefully.
Make sure to keep the coffee brewing Thursday. This will go on late.
UPDATE: The New York Times reports on the candidates' organized effort to turn out their supporters. Governor Chet Culver remarked: "I've never seen anything like it. The get-out-the-vote efforts are going to be the best ever."
Recent Comments