Laura Meckler and Elizabeth Holmes, writing in the Wall Street Journal, have the best piece I have seen yet on the contest between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney in Iowa.
In Iowa, the Republican presidential race has come down to two former governors who offer caucus goers a stark choice. It's the pulpit vs. the boardroom, poverty vs. privilege, passion vs. preparedness.
Mike Huckabee loves homespun tales and self-deprecating jokes. Mitt Romney basks in PowerPoint slides and statistics. Mr. Huckabee, a firefighter's son, is a Southerner born and bred. Mr. Romney, son of a CEO-turned-governor, roamed from Michigan to Massachusetts to Utah.
They embody two wings of the Republican Party -- social conservatives and economic conservatives -- that sometimes sit uneasily.
It would appear that the tensions expressed in the Romney/Huckabee are similar to those that brought down Tom Daschle, if I am right in my interpretation of the latter event. Huckabee represents the populist wing of the Republican party. Until recently, the populists were largely assimilated into the party's classical liberalism. The populists liked the emphasis on security, at home and abroad, that is part of the conservative program. They were less enthusiastic about free markets of any kind, but nonetheless supported them. After all, for a long time the alternative was communism.
Huckabee's rise may be a sign that the conservative coalition is coming unglued. But it is way too early to conclude that. We don't know if Huckabee will even win Iowa. He is not that far ahead of Romney in most polls. See Pollster.com.
| Pollster | Dates | N/Pop | Giuliani | Huckabee | McCain | Paul | Romney | Thompson |
| ARG | 12/20-23/07 | 600 LV | 14 | 23 | 17 | 10 | 21 | 3 |
| ARG | 12/16-19/07 | 600 LV | 13 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 17 | 5 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 12/16-18/07 | 600 LV | 6 | 31 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 16 |
| CNN | 12/14-18/07 | 359 LV | 11 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 9 |
| Rasmussen | 12/17/2007 | 496 LV | 8 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 27 | 8 |
And if he does win, that doesn't mean he will win anything else. I also can't help noticing from this chart from the Meckler/Holmes article.
The split between evangelicals and professionals is probably as good a shot of the populist/conservative distinction as one will find. But it isn't all that much of a split, is it? Evangelicals are probably asking themselves whether Huckabee can win. The conservatives are wondering whether Romney is really a conservative, or is just playing one on tv. When both groups can split within themselves on such issues, they can recombine with other groups for the sake of victory.
Recent Comments