The 2008 Presidential Election promises to be, well, it doesn't promise anything. And that is one for the record books. For the last half a century or so, one candidate in every presidential election has been either an incumbent running for reelection, or a sitting or former Vice President. I think 1952 was the last exception, but I am going on memory. When you have a P or a VP, the election becomes a referendum. More of the same, or not. I suppose if Senator Clinton is nominated, no sure thing at this point, the same choice might present itself. But it doesn't feel like that.
Tony Blankey argues that the GOP is headed toward a brokered convention. He thinks that the GOP's constituent parts are working to prevent any candidate from unifying the party. I think its way too early to draw that conclusion. But it is hard to be confident that any candidate is the front runner, and that is unusual. Blankey thinks that this adds up to a Republican defeat, and I agree, provided that the Democrats achieve some unity on their side. But that is by no means guaranteed.
Powerline points out that Senator Clinton, who by any traditional standard ought to be the Democratic nominee, is carrying more baggage than Marley's ghost. Commenting on a recent poll:
The eye-opener there is that 42% of independents, and even some Democrats, are dead set against Mrs. Clinton.
If that holds, it means that Candidate Clinton turns independents into Republicans. It is that and only that that makes Obama, a sexy guy with nothing on his resume above the level of state legislature, a viable candidate.
The truth is that both parties are in disarray. A brokered convention (let alone two!) would be the greatest show on earth for a political scientist. But one wonders if the parties are up to it. If they are, this may be their finest hour.
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