A Brokered Convention?

Dr. Blanchard touches on the subject of a brokered convention below and our friend Ed Morrissey wonders if the GOP is facing the possibility of a brokered convention to overcome unity problems. It seems clear that Republicans haven’t thrown their support behind any single candidate in a meaningful way. The New York Times reported last week that the current GOP candidates are not exciting primary voters. Morrissey cites a recent McClatchy article exploring Rudy Giuliani’s slide in the polls and a Gallup poll signaling that Mike Huckabee’s surge has reached its apex. Meanwhile, John McCain gathers support in New Hampshire and Mitt Romney is (in Ed’s words) “treading water.” David Freddoso made the same argument this week in National Review.

Here are my off-the-cuff observations. I’m not so certain that a brokered convention – the selection of a nominee determined at the convention rather than beforehand in state primaries and caucuses – is necessarily inevitable within the GOP camp. It seems that every election year the topic of brokered conventions come up, but one hasn’t happened in the last fifty-five years. The last time the GOP had a brokered convention was 1948 and for the Democrats it was 1952.  Each party lost their bid in those years.

We should also be careful that we’re not focusing too narrowly on the primaries. For instance, Mitt Romney might not appeal well to Republican primary voters, but nationally he’s viewed as a moderate – an important consideration for the general election. He may not carry voters who leave Giuliani’s camp, but I suspect he can capture Huckabee supporters. I also happen to think Romney might have the best shot in raising support and getting the nomination. Huckabee’s Foreign Affairs article will do him in among national-security conservatives, McCain has trust issues, Thompson needs a big push to gain any traction, and Giuliani’s early lead is slowly fading. I would submit that by February the GOP will form a consensus around a candidate and the voters and pundits will unite behind that person. The best odds, it seems to me, lies with the moderates of the party – Romney, McCain, and Thompson, who sit between Giuliani’s social liberalism and Huckabee’s naïveté. Depending on how the primaries go, one of the middle ground candidates might drop out. Or a large ad campaign against Huckabee by the two well-funded candidates (Romney and Giuliani) might force him out of the race.  A lot can change in the next three months.

The political Big Picture for the GOP might also be disastrous if a brokered convention resulted. If one of the Democratic candidates captures the nomination on Super Tuesday (February 5), let’s say Barack Obama, that would allow him to start the campaign early, supported by a large war chest funded by unified supporters. The Republicans, on the other hand, would bicker until September, squandering the chance for unity behind the GOP nominee.

Then again, the contrarian in me says that a televised floor debate at the GOP convention might be a welcome divergence from the lethargic displays on television in recent years, and even have an energizing consequence by showing a functioning political institution. It would be a refreshing change for a political junkie like me.