I have previously written about using retirements from Congress as a predictor of the coming election. This news article from the WaPo tabulates six Republican senators are retiring, Trent Lott being the latest, and seventeen House members. This is the activity of members who believe their party will be in the minority for sometime, so it is best just to leave rather than remain in the minority. While Mississippi (Lott), Texas (Hutchison) and Nebraska (Hagel, with no Bob Kerrey running) seem likely Republican holds, Republicans are fighting hard to hold the other seats (Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico).
Some good news for Republicans, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, thought to be in trouble, has a favorable rating of 53%. This is not bad for a Republican in a state that leans Democrat, especially given the unpopularity of the national GOP.
On the other hand, you have this poll showing Hillary Clinton losing to the GOP front runners. Let me suggest that a year before the election these polls mean relatively little. Let's wait until it is one Democrat against one Republican. Even then, since that eventuality is likely to occur eight months before the election, the polls will only represent a snap shot. It's best to remain calm and observant and let the election follow its own course.
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