Let's discuss the 2008 election even though we still have about six weeks of 2007 to go. Here are the big stories of the week. For the Dems, Barak Obama has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in Iowa. On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee has pulled even with Mitt Romney in Iowa. So the political discussion concerns the weakening of front runners and the ascent of previously dismissed candidates.
Let me suggest this is all bunk. In recent elections the media has looked for a narrative. Let us not forget two factors about the press. First, there is a large amount of group think. Second, they get bored. Take a look at New York Times reporter Frank Bruni's book Ambling Into History, his story of covering George Bush during the 2000 campaign. He writes that reporters began concentrating on Bush's verbal gaffes not because they were really newsworthy, but because the reporters were bored. They had heard the same speech a million times, and the only new thing to them was the words Bush flubbed. They would talk to each other on the press bus and then report that chatter to the people as "sources close to the campaign."
The press needs a narrative to each election and once one is created the lemmings will follow. Part of that narrative is playing out before our eyes. Hillary Clinton has been the Democratic front runner for some time. Early this year we had an Obama boomlet when he was new and fresh, but that got old so it became all about Sen. Clinton. After all, she is ahead in the polls. But it gets boring talking about front runner Clinton every day. So we have seen stories about her weaknesses, the gaffes she has made, the surge in the polls of her opponents. Let me predict that just as people in Iowa and New Hampshire are getting ready to vote, this "Hillary is on the slide" story will be old and the new story will be "Hillary on the comeback." A shiny new donkey to the first reporter to relate Hillary's odyssey to Bill's "comeback kid" performance in New Hampshire in 1992.
The same goes for the GOP. The "Mitt, Rudy, and John" show got boring. So it became the "Mitt, Rudy, John, and will Fred run show." For a while it was "Mitt, Rudy and Fred." That got boring, and so did Fred Thompson, so now the story is the comeback of John McCain and the "fresh face" of Mike Huckabee. But it will come down to Mitt, Rudy and John, just like it was nine months ago.
The Democratic contest really is no contest, which is why the media has to fabricate tension. I'll bet Ken Blanchard's house that Hillary has the nomination sewn up by mid-February (when candidates used to get away with announcing for president!). I suspect she will not lose a primary where there is no favorite son candidate. The Republican contest is messier, so it generates its own story lines a little more naturally. Romney is ahead in the early states, but behind nationally. Giuliani is ahead nationally, but behind in early states. McCain is waiting in the wings for someone to falter. Now that might actually be interesting. In the end Mick Huckabee will also become boring. But thanks for the story, Mike.
BTW, given that both parties will have their nominations sewn up by early March, look for the longest and most annoying presidential race in US history. There will be about eight months for the media to create lots of phony narratives.
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