My colleague Ken Blanchard notes the surging poll numbers of Mike Huckabee in Iowa. This has prompted political observers to wonder if The Huckster has a chance at winning Iowa. History is certainly in his favor. As Chris Cillizza points out, Pat Buchana (1992) and Pat Robertson (1988) captured 23 percent and 25 percent of the caucus voters, respectively (in 1988, Bob Dole won the caucuses with 37 percent). In 2000, Gary Bauer, former president of the Family Research Council, took 14 percent while Alan Keyes received 9 percent. This tells us, as Cillizza notes, that "in the last three competitive Iowa GOP caucuses, the candidate (or candidates) seen as the most socially conservative has taken somewhere between 23 percent and 25 percent of the caucus vote."
Could the lightly funded former preacher topple the political organization built by Mitt Romney? The numbers and the history certainly look good for him. If Huckabee can sustain a clear contrast between himself and Romney, increase his support from social conservatives, and gain an edge in fundraising, he certainly has a shot.
UPDATE: Our friend Peter Lawler over at No Left Turns has further thoughts. His colleague, Peter Schramm, instead wonders if the Romney-Huckabee battle will help John McCain take Iowa.
Recent Comments