I have been confidently predicting for months that Senator Tim Johnson would not run for re-election. I am still predicting that he won't run because, well, what is the point in giving up now? If sometime between now and the election, he does withdraw, I will look very wise. How often does that happen? But just right now the case is looking harder to make. Here is the story from Kevin Woster at the RCJ:
Sen. Tim Johnson confirmed Friday the campaign plans he has implied for weeks, announcing a 2008 reelection drive that will proceed despite the physical challenges left from a brain hemorrhage and emergency surgery last December.
In a solicitation e-mail to supporters and a news release from his campaign office, the South Dakota Democrat said he is now fully convinced that he can handle the multiple challenges of serving in the U.S. Senate.
I have to admit that I am tempted to raise an eyebrow and express doubts about the Senator's fitness, thus igniting a firestorm of abuse from my Democratic friends in the regional blogosphere. The things that Doug Wiken or Todd Epp would write, not to mention my friend and colleague David Newquist, would burn so bright this blog would be visible from outer space.
But I can't. If Tim says he is fit to serve, that is good enough for me. I also admit that the prospect of an open Senate seat was more than a little exciting to me, both as a blogger and as a political scientist. Had Senator Johnson announced that he wasn't running, traffic at all the local blogs would swell like a mountain creek when its thundering and raining over the peaks. And it is always fun to get calls from the local and not so local media.
Assuming I am wrong, and he is in for the duration, I don't see how he loses. I liked and admired Tom Daschle, but a lot of South Dakotans did not. By contrast, I don't know anyone who doesn't like Tim Johnson. His heroic recovery both inspires and deserves admiration. Moreover, with his leave or not, some of his supporters will now treat any criticism of his record as a vicious attack on a wounded warrior. I don't see how a Republican campaign can climb all those hills between now and next year's November.
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