There is plenty of indication that next year is going to be a Democratic year. When the public thinks that Democrats will do a better job of protecting it from foreign threats, it is not good for Republicans.
One can look beyond polls. Look at the behavior of candidates. One can get a good indication of the attitudes of actual candidates based on candidate recruitment. There are many retirements on the Republican side, notably John Warner and Chuck Hagel in the Senate, but even in the House a handful of Republicans, such as Minnesota's Jim Ramsted, are calling it quits. There does not seem to be a similar movement on the Democratic side. That is an indication that Republicans know they will be in the minority for some time, so they might as well bail, while Democrats thinking about retirement are hanging on to take advantage of their majority status.
Similarly, the Democrats are recruiting good candidates. Mark Warner in Virginia, Jean Shaheen in New Hampshire and perhaps Bob Kerrey in Nebraska. If Warner and Kerrey were to win, that'd be two Republican states with two Democratic Senators.
The presidential race is a different matter. I still have a hard time envisioning Hillary Clinton winning a general election. On the other hand, like her husband, she is decidedly blessed by her enemies. Some are suggesting that a Giuliani candidacy will so alienate conservative Christians that a third party movement will develop. See Mark Gerson here, arguing that Hillary Clinton's strong religious convictions might attract some religious voters who normally vote Republican. Responses by Joe Knippenberg and Patrick Deneen. This would create 1992 all over again: a Clinton in the White House thanks in part to the efforts of a third party candidate.
The Republican candidates have flaws. Giuliani is too liberal for his party. Romney reminds one of a game show host. Fred Thompson seems to think he can win the nomination based on being famous. Mike Huckabee still lags in polls and also strikes one as being a clever campaigner but perhaps not much of a leader. This leaves John McCain. Perhaps some Republican voters are deciding that, despite his apostasies from conservative orthodoxy, McCain is a strong leader who is serious about national security. He also is a bastion of conservative consistency as compared to Rudy Giuliani. He might be the candidate who can keep the GOP united and beat Hillary Clinton.
Prediction: After the 2008 election we have a Republican president whose congressional party is even deeper in the minority. But, as they say, this election will be determined by events that have yet to occur.
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