There are four really interesting questions about global warming: 1) is it happening? 2) Is it caused in large part by human activity? 3) Is it bad? and 4) Can we do anything about it? I have written frequently on this topic and I have been mostly persuaded that the answer to the first two questions is yes. I have argued that the answer to the last question is no. As for the third question, I think that we have no idea except to say that change always presents challenges.
Discover magazine has a fascinating interview with a genuine climate scientist who clearly and cautiously skeptical about question number 2. I haven't been able to find an on line version, but here is the abstract:
This article presents an interview with Henrik Svensmark, director of the Center of Sun-Climate Research at the Danish National Space Center. Svensmark has become a controversial figure for proposing solar activity is responsible for global warming. He says cosmic rays suppress cloud formation, which, in turn, affects temperatures on Earth.
The caution with which Svensmark answers questions in the interview indicates the political pressure that honest scientists are under if their research has implications for this matter. I gather that it is a very bad thing if the Bush Administration pressures scientists to conform to the party line, but global warming activists don't mind at all bringing all sorts of pressure on scientists who don't follow their line. But Svensmark is man enough to acknowledge the bottom line: to the extent that global warming is due to solar activity, it isn't due to human activity.
This came to mind tonight as I watched a Nature show on Ireland. 13,000 years ago, if I remember it right, the Emerald Isle was snow white with ice, and dead as a frozen leg of lamb. Since then it has thawed out and greened, allowing all sorts of flora and fauna to flourish, along with the Irish Republican Army and the Guinness brewery. So global warming has been going on for a long time without our help, and for the most part it has been a very good thing. Of course there have been winners and losers. Why are there stoats in Ireland, but no weasels or snakes? Because as Ireland thawed, the seas receded, eventually submerging the land bridge between England and Ireland. The stoats made it across in time. The snakes didn't. The Protestants had to use boats.
That is the history of Ireland and everywhere else. I note that the people of Greenland are delighted with global warming, as their charming chunk of earth is becoming green once again. Sitting on my deck in June with a jacket on, I am with them.
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