Multiple articles today discuss Rudy Giuliani and the role of abortion in GOP presidential politics. This New Republic piece (free registration required), suggests that Giuliani hearkens a new age of post social conservative Republicanism:
Many observers believe Giuliani's early success is the result of his calculated move rightward--a savvy effort to trick conservative voters into believing he is really one of them. But there is another possibility, one that assumes a bit more intelligence on the part of conservative voters like DePass: What if we are witnessing not Rudy moving toward the rest of the Republican Party, but rather the Republican Party moving toward Rudy? What if the salience of a certain kind of social conservatism is now in decline among GOP voters and a new set of conservative principles are emerging to take its place? What if Giuilianism represents the future of the Republican Party?
iuliani is the beneficiary of an upheaval within the Republican electorate--an upheaval that was catalyzed by September 11 but is becoming apparent only now, as the GOP hosts its first primary battle since the terrorist attacks. In brief, among Republican voters, the litmus test issues of abortion and gay marriage have been losing traction, subordinated to the Iraq war and terrorism. According to the Pew Research Center, 31 percent of GOP voters name Iraq as their top priority, and 17 percent choose terrorism and security. Just 7 percent name abortion and 1 percent name gay marriage.
E.J. Dionne asks whether pro-lifers will be as hard on Giuliani as they were on Kerry. Joe Knippenberg has a response. Jack Kelly suggests that the war on terror will drive his voting more than abortion will. I suppose much of the attention paid to this issue and this man has to do with whether the GOP really is a "big tent" and can accept a man as "progressive" as is Giuliani on social issues. One detects, though, a bit too much protestation. Notice the attention paid to Mitt Romney as to whether he is really pro-life (to which Romney has a great response). Did anyone ever question whether former pro-life politicians like Al Gore, Dick Durbin, Dick Gephardt and Jesse Jackson were sincere in their support for legalized abortion? The attention paid to Giuliani, abortion and GOP voters is yet another attempt by the media to harp on the GOP and social conservatives as intolerant on social issues. Should Giuliani fail to gain the nomination, the story is already written: it was those darn theocrats and their intolerance on abortion and homosexuality. But let me ask you a question: if there was a highly competent Democratic candidate who had a solid progressive record except he was staunchly pro-life and supported the Federal Marriage Amendment, where do you think he'd be polling among Democratic primary voters? How many delegates do you think that candidate would get? In fact, what are the chances of that candidate even getting the chance to speak at the Democratic National Convention? If the past is prologue, the answers to those questions are zero, zero, and damn near zero. Which party is closed minded on social issues?
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